The Bears offense has come alive in the last few weeks, but it’s been their defense that has let them down. It’s nearly the opposite for the Jets who have scored 20 points or less in 4 consecutive games, however, they’ve won 2 of those games. This will be an interesting battle between two up-and-down teams, and our NFL expert gives their picks, predictions and best bets for this big game.
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NFL Chicago Bears vs New York Jets expert predictions
There’s a possibility this matchup is between backup quarterbacks. Zach Wilson, the quarterback of the Jets, has been benched due to his poor performance last week against the Patriots and then not taking responsibility for the bad offensive play. Bears QB Justin Fields has been dealing with a separated shoulder. With so many uncertainties in this game, our expert broke down his 2 best picks for this game.
Chicago Bears vs New York Jets spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Bears +6, Jets -6
Total Points Over/Under: 38.5 points
Money Line Odds: Bears +205, Jets -245
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Check out more of our NFL predictions for Week 12:
- Falcons vs Commanders predictions
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- Saints vs 49ers predictions
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Chicago Bears vs New York Jets expert picks
We’ve got 2 standout NFL picks for the clash between the Bears and Jets.
Bears vs Jets point spread pick: Jets -6 (-110)
I think this is one of the toughest games to handicap on the card all week, with massive question marks at quarterbacks for both teams. Let’s start with the Jets, who unlike the Bears are willingly making a switch under center. Wilson gets demoted all the way down to 3rd string as Mike White takes the reins with Joe Flacco serving as the backup. The market agreed with the move, as the market saw about a half-point of movement towards the Jets in the wake of the news drop and I can see the offense rallying around White this week, who has had flashes of brilliance in his brief career. The Bears might be forced to sit Fields this week who is nursing a variety of injuries, but the most prevalent is his injured non-throwing shoulder. Fields practiced Wednesday in a limited fashion, and should be considered highly questionable this week.
If he doesn’t play, this line will likely move through the key number of 7 with backup Trevor Siemian likely getting the start. Even if Fields plays, I’m not sure his legs will be as much of a factor as previous weeks considering how banged up he is. The Jets defense is 3rd in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency and 6th in EPA/play this season as Robert Saleh’s unit has quickly evolved into one of the most formidable in the NFL. The matchup to watch here is Quinnen Williams and a stout Jets defensive line against a Bears offensive line that is trending in a positive direction ranked top 12 in both pass block and run block win rates.
Be sure to check out our full Bears vs Jets predictions
Bears vs Jets Over/Under totals pick: Over 38.5 (-110)
This total will drop further if Fields is forced to sit this week with his shoulder injury, and I don’t see it increasing too much if he plays, so it’s probably best to wait until gameday before betting this one. The Under is 11-7 (64.7%) this season when the total closes below 40 but if you widen the sample to the prior 5 seasons that drops dramatically to 31-32 (49.2%) which speaks to how fluky of a season it’s been with offenses and overs. The one reason I think the over is in play this week is the Bears’ putrid defense ranked 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency and the potential upside Mike White brings to the table for the Jets offense.
The floor might be slightly lower than Wilson, but I think the ceiling is immensely higher considering what we’ve seen from Wilson the last few weeks. Another factor to consider is the spark White will bring considering how Wilson lost the locker room, so I can see the Jets offense playing with some extra fire this week. At the end of the day it all comes down to the health and status of Justin Fields. If he plays, this has a chance to sneak over a low total, if not I have no idea what we will get from Trevor Siemian. The moral of the story is there are much better options on the NFL board this week.
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