Andrew Ortenberg
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Well, we made it to the finish line. The 2023 NFL regular season will wrap up on Sunday and we have one last full slate to look forward to. One of the most highly anticipated Week 18 showdowns is this NFC North clash between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. The Packers are playing for a playoff spot, while the Bears are just looking to spoil Green Bay’s season and finish on a high note.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this classic rivalry showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 18 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Bears vs Packers SGP.
Chicago Bears ML (+130)
Justin Fields 275+ passing yards (+550)
Parlay odds: +1149
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 11/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Chicago Bears ML (+130)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Bears straight up on the money line. Green Bay just needs to win one home game against a division rival with nothing to play for to get into the playoffs…. What could possibly go wrong? Well this same exact situation played out last year, and the Packers fell flat and lost to the Lions. Detroit went all out to spoil things for Green Bay last year and I think we can expect a similar effort level from Chicago this time around.
The Bears have been playing hard for Matt Eberflus down the stretch; they are playing their best ball of the season right now. The defense is surging, and last week they smoked the Falcons by 20 while dropping 37 points. Chicago has won 4 of its past 5 and its only loss in that span was by just 3 points on the road against a Browns team that is one of the hottest in the NFL these days.
The Bears haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game since November 19, and that was against the Lions and their high-flying offense. Green Bay has been much less impressive down the stretch, going 2-2 in its last four. The 2 wins during this stretch have come against quarterbacks Bryce Young and Jaren Hall.
In their 2 games before that, the Packers lost by 14 at home to the Bucs and also to the Giants — who were starting Tommy DeVito. The Bears are going to be their toughest test in a while, and I don’t think Joe Barry’s sieve-like defense is ready for the occasion.
Justin Fields 275+ passing yards (+550)
For the next and final leg of our SGP I’m counting on a big game from Fields. This is essentially a showcase for Fields, and an audition for him to be the team’s starter in 2024 and make the Bears pass on taking a quarterback with the first overall pick. With playoffs not in play, I think the whole team will be thinking about Fields and letting him chuck it a bit more than usual.
He needs to show that he has made major strides as a passer, and this is his final chance. Fortunately for him, he gets to face a terrible Packers defense. The last 4 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced have been Hall, Young, DeVito and Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is the only one of those guys who isn’t a rookie, and the only one capable of completing a forward pass, and he absolutely shredded them.
Mayfield went into Lambeau Field and literally had a perfect passer rating while throwing for 381 yards on just 28 attempts, so I don’t see any reason to believe Fields won’t also have success. Last week he had 268 yards, and that was in the pouring rain against an Atlanta defense that is better than this Green Bay one.
Fields had back-to-back games earlier this year (before getting hurt) in which he had 335 and 282 yards. As such, I don’t think this total is nearly as outlandish as oddsmakers seem to think.
