Aaron Ashley
The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League Last 16 gets underway on Tuesday with a ton of huge matchups in store. Up first at 12:45 pm ET, we have surprise story Club Brugge hosting Aston Villa, for which we have a HUGE best bet. Then at 3:00 pm ET, it’s Borussia Dortmund vs Lille (live on CBS Sports Network), PSV vs Arsenal and the biggest game of the day, Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid. Let’s dive into our expert Champions League best bets for EVERY game, while you can also find out our soccer predictions for more Champions League picks as well as our EPL and MLS best bets each week.
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Club Brugge vs Aston Villa best bet: Club Brugge ML & Both Teams To Score (+452)
Club Brugge stunned Atalanta in the Champions League play-off round with a 5-2 aggregate victory against the odds, and they could put another favorite on the back foot when they host Aston Villa on Tuesday. The Belgian club beat Atalanta at home and on the road, and can draw confidence from a fantastic home record in this competition this season with 3 wins, a tie and 1 defeat. One of these victories came against this same Aston Villa team back in November, which they followed with 2-1 successes over Sporting Lisbon and Atalanta along with a tie against Juventus.
That loss was 1 of 2 Champions League defeats suffered by Unai Emery’s team on the road this campaign, and they head to Bruges having lost their last 3 road games in all competitions. Considering this, Club Brugge look great value to get a first-leg win on Tuesday, but a shutout is unlikely against an Aston Villa team that has scored in each of its last 6 games. Club Brugge have conceded in 10 of their last 11 in all competitions, so backing them to win and both teams to score looks the right way to attack this game.
Read our full Club Brugge vs Aston Villa prediction
Borussia Dortmund vs Lille best bet: Borussia Dortmund ML (-145)
Borussia Dortmund impressed in the last round of the Champions League, beating Sporting 3-0 on the road in the first leg before seeing the tie out at home. The Bundesliga team is starting to show some form under Niko Kovac and they’re a good bet to secure victory over Lille. The hosts have won their previous 2 games going into this one, having scored 8 times while recording shutouts in both. In addition to that, Dortmund have been posting impressive underlying numbers, including 4.8 Expected Goals in their victory over Union Berlin.
Dortmund dominated on xG across both legs with Sporting. On the other hand, Lille overperformed their xG numbers in the League Phase, scoring 17 times from 9.5 xG as they finished in 7th place. The visitors have lost 3 of their previous 4 road games and look destined for another defeat in this first leg.
Read our full Borussia Dortmund vs Lille prediction
PSV vs Arsenal best bet: PSV Win or Tie Double Chance (-135)
PSV Eindhoven can prevent Arsenal from taking a lead back to London for the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie when the 2 clubs meet at the Philips Stadium on Tuesday. They have faced each other 4 times during Mikel Arteta’s time as Arsenal manager and the Gunners are yet to secure a win on the road in Eindhoven. Arteta fielded much-changed lineups on both previous occasions but will go in as strong as he can for this one after Arsenal’s free weekend. The Gunners’ hopes of winning the EPL are all but over after a 0-0 tie at Nottingham Forest last Wednesday, making the Champions League their best hope for a first trophy in 5 years.
The pressure is ramping up on Arteta with last month’s training ground injury to Kai Havertz leaving him woefully short of strikers during a crucial phase of the campaign. Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli won’t be available until April while Havertz and Gabriel Jesus could be out for the rest of the season. Arteta’s belief that Arsenal would score enough goals without a recognized striker in his preferred selection now appears to be a miscalculation. They have dropped points in 6 road Premier League games against top-10 clubs when failing to score enough goals.
That does not bode well for Arsenal’s trip to the Netherlands, where PSV have been excellent in this competition. Peter Bosz’s men are unbeaten across their last 11 home Champions League games and have suffered only 1 defeat in their last 17 at Philips Stadion, including qualifying round games. They may be in poor form domestically after back-to-back cup and league defeats to Go Ahead Eagles, but they showed they can rise to the big occasion when storming back to beat Juventus in extra-time last month. The Dutch club has value to avoid defeat in this one.
Read our full PSV vs Arsenal prediction
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid best bet: Both Teams To Score (-130)
Defending champions Real Madrid are being talked up for another deep run in the Champions League, but their Last 16 tie with Atletico is a dangerous one. Diego Simeone’s team has gotten under the skin of their illustrious rivals in the build-up to this clash, while they overtook Real in the Spanish title race over the weekend.
The visitors have lost only once in their last 26 games while playing with an impressive attacking swagger. They have plenty of options going forward, which helped them win their final 5 League Phase games to move into the top 8 in the standings. Atletico continue to shake off their old identity as a defensive club, with 9 of their previous 11 Champions League games featuring both teams scoring. Their clashes with Real have been similarly entertaining, as each of the last 9 encounters have seen both teams find the net. Both teams to score has also landed in 4 of Real’s last 5 in the Champions League and their defensive issues were on display in a 2-1 loss at Real Betis on Saturday.
Read our full Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction
