Aaron Ashley
The quarterfinal stage of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League comes to a close this week and Tuesday sees a pair of 2nd legs take place at 3:00 pm ET. First off, we have Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona, with the German giants looking to overturn a 4-0 deficit after they were dominated in the 1st leg. The other matchup on tap is Aston Villa hosting PSG. The French club won the 1st leg 3-1, but the Villans have been strong at home all season and will be optimistic they can turn things around. Let’s dive into our expert Champions League best bets for both quarterfinal games on Tuesday, while you can also find out our soccer predictions for more Champions League picks as well as our EPL and MLS best bets each week.
Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona best bet: Over 3.5 goals (+110)
Trailing 4-0 after last week’s hammering, Borussia Dortmund’s Champions League exit looks inevitable. Their participation in the competition next season is also uncertain, as they sit 8th in the Bundesliga following a 2-2 tie with Bayern Munich on Saturday. There’s a chance that this game fizzles out, given Barcelona are set to rotate their side. While Dortmund’s focus will be on a late surge into the top 4 in the league, they should be aiming to restore some pride before exiting the Champions League.
Barcelona have little reason to risk their key players in this clash, but wholesale rotation is unlikely. A tweaked Barca lineup should ensure some entertainment at Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday, as their attacking approach has resulted in chances at both ends in Europe this term. Barca conceded 1.4 Expected Goals in their dominant first-leg win. The visitors have conceded 11.0 xG across their last six games in Europe. Among those was a 3-2 victory in Dortmund in December, in which the German team outplayed their opponents, winning the xG battle 2.7 to 2.0.
Barca’s success this season has been built on a daring approach, so it’s hard to see Hansi Flick’s team going defensive in this 2nd leg. Even their rotated forward line can cause Dortmund problems, but changes at the back suggest they could struggle to keep the hosts out. Barca tore through Dortmund last week, racking up 3.5 xG – so they were good value for their comprehensive victory. The hosts conceded 28 shots to Bayern at the weekend, with 11 of those on target. They remain vulnerable defensively, so over 3.5 goals looks the best bet here.
Read our full Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona prediction
Aston Villa vs PSG best bet: PSG ML (+110)
PSG took command of this Champions League quarterfinal with their late 3rd strike last Wednesday, handing them a comprehensive 3-1 lead over Aston Vila. After the brilliant display PSG produced against Liverpool in the Last 16, they look well-placed to deal with the threat of Aston Villa in Tuesday’s clash. Villa head coach Unai Emery has a fantastic track record in Europe, but chasing a tie like this doesn’t really play to his strengths. Villa did add plenty of attacking midfield guile in the January transfer window, but they’re going to need to rely on all of that as they try to break down a PSG side who have looked resilient in this tournament so far.
The French champions had a reputation for being a soft touch while packing their team full of stars, but Luis Enrique has overhauled that squad, turning them into a hungry, disciplined club. PSG are on course for an unbeaten season in Ligue 1, while they head to Birmingham having won 7 straight games across all competitions. Their domestic results rarely carry much prestige when compared to the rest of Europe, but shutting down Premier League leaders Liverpool last month was a statement of intent and they should win this one in 90 minutes as well.
Read our full Aston Villa vs PSG prediction
