Aaron Ashley
The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League Last 16 wraps up on Wednesday afternoon and by the evening we’ll know our quarterfinal lineup. Getting the day’s action underway is Lille vs Borussia Dortmund, which begins at 1:45 pm ET live on CBS Sports Network. That is followed by a triple threat of matchups at 4:00 pm ET on Paramount+, with Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid, Arsenal vs PSV and Aston Villa vs Club Brugge. Let’s dive into our expert Champions League best bets for EVERY game, while you can also find out our soccer predictions for more Champions League picks as well as our EPL and MLS best bets each week.
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Lille vs Borussia Dortmund best bet: Lille ML (+165)
Lille have been one of the success stories of this Champions League campaign so far, standing on the verge of the quarterfinals having come through 2 rounds of qualifiers last summer. The French club landed a top-8 finish in the League Phase and that’s earned them home advantage for the second-leg showdown with Borussia Dortmund following last week’s 1-1 tie. Dortmund suffered another setback at the weekend as they went down 1-0 at home to Augsburg. The visitors are 10th in the Bundesliga and their recent struggles make them worth opposing here.
Lille were the stronger team last week, holding Dortmund to 0.3 xG, and the French side had 56% of possession. They’ve won 5 of their 6 home Champions League matches this term including qualifiers, while they’ve won 8 of their last 11 at their own ground across all competitions. Lille have taken some big scalps this season and they can add last year’s finalists to the list as they look to wrap up a spot in the quarterfinals.
Read our full Lille vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Arsenal vs PSV best bet: Both Teams To Score (-108)
Arsenal take on PSV in the second leg of their Champions League Last 16 tie on Wednesday with a place in the quarterfinals virtually guaranteed. The Gunners won 7-1 in the first leg in Eindhoven, recording the largest-ever road win in the knockout stages of the Champions League, and it would take an unprecedented turnaround for their European campaign to end this week. However, that does make this game a little harder to navigate.
PSV will be keen to restore some pride even if they know they have almost no chance of progress, while Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta may even use this chance to rest a few players – although he will still name a strong side. As such, Arsenal are worth avoiding as a heavy favorite against a team that has picked up results against PSG, Liverpool and Juventus this season, so the best option looks to be for there to be goals at both ends.
PSV did manage to get on the scoresheet in the first leg and they can at least land a glancing blow on Arsenal in North London. The Dutch club has seen goals at both ends in each of their last 8 games and have only failed to score in 1 Champions League game, grabbing goals against the likes of Sporting Lisbon, Juventus (in all 3 meetings), PSG, Liverpool and Shakhtar Donetsk along the way. Arsenal have found shutouts hard to come by of late, particularly at home where they have conceded in 6 of their last 7 games, but they have only failed to score in 3 home games all season and should be able to play their part in finding the net as well.
Read our full Arsenal vs PSV prediction
Aston Villa vs Club Brugge best bet: Aston Villa ML & Both Teams To Score (+197)
Aston Villa’s first-ever Champions League campaign has been mightily successful already, with Unai Emery guiding his team through the League Phase with relative ease, finishing 8th, and they have made a great start in landing a spot in the quarterfinals. The Villans beat Club Brugge 3-1 on the road last week, meaning they hold a great advantage ahead of the 2nd leg.
Emery’s team is in fine form, digging deep to beat Brentford 1-0 on Saturday to make it 5 wins and just 1 loss in their last 8 matches, and it is hard to envisage anything other than a home win at Villa Park, where they have been strong for a while now. Villa have lost just 2 of their 23 home matches this season with wins over Manchester City, Tottenham and Chelsea, as well as ties with Liverpool and Juventus, and a home victory can be expected on Wednesday.
However, Brugge held their own in the first leg and can at least find the net. The Belgians can take positives from their first-leg defeat, as well as the fact they beat the Villans 1-0 during the League Phase. Both teams have scored in 11 of Brugge’s last 12 matches and, with the same bet clicking in 6 of Villa’s last 8, it could pay to combine that selection with a home win on Wednesday night.
Read our full Aston Villa vs Club Brugge prediction
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid best bet: Atletico Madrid ML (+155)
Diego Simeone didn’t show a lot of ambition with his team 2-1 down at the Bernabeu last week, but I don’t think that’s evidence that Real Madrid have their quarterfinal place wrapped up. The visitors head to their cross-town rivals with a poor record in big games this season despite last week’s victory. Los Blancos are winless on the road to La Liga’s top 8 so far this term, suffering 2 defeats in those 5 games.
Real have also fallen short in 2 clashes with Barcelona, while they’ve lost Champions League trips to Lille and Liverpool. The visitors were also outplayed in a visit to Atalanta earlier in the competition, while the 0.7 to 0.2 xG difference between these 2 teams last week shows that it wasn’t a dominant victory for Real.
Atletico Madrid have won 10 of their last 12 home matches since the beginning of November, and they’ve won 8 of their last 9 home Champions League ties. With Real losing 3 of their previous 5 visits to Atletico, they could be vulnerable once more and there looks to be value in the hosts picking up the win in 90 minutes.
Read our full Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction
