Filip Tomic
Basketball starts as early as 1 pm this Saturday as the Cavaliers and Heat battle in Game 3 of their East 1st Round series. I’ve prepared a +428 Same Game Parlay to make things a bit more interesting, last night I was just a point away from cashing on my Celtics vs Magic SGP. You can find our predictions on the side and total for Saturday’s NBA Playoffs games on the NBA Predictions page, but now let’s dive into my Cavaliers vs Heat Game 3 SGP bet!
Cavaliers -5.5 (-110)
Evan Mobley to Record 10+ Rebounds (-122)
Andrew Wiggins to Score 15+ Points (-170)
Same Game Parlay odds: +428
Cavaliers -5.5 (-110)
The Cleveland Cavaliers looked comfortable in the first 2 games of the series, winning both by at least a 9-point margin. They should be well positioned to keep that momentum going in Game 3 in Miami. The Heat have had issues defending their home court this season, finishing the regular season with a 19-22 record. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have thrived on the road. Their point differential of 7.4 in those games is good enough for third in the NBA. Their defensive performances have been a huge part of that.
Another major issue facing the Heat is the fact that they simply cannot slow down their opponents. With Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland both consistently and effectively picking on Tyler Herro, the Cavaliers’ offense has been rolling. In fact, they currently have the best offensive rating of all teams in the NBA playoffs. They have also been making an incredible 45.5% of their 3-point attempts, effectively negating the rim protection that Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware are able to offer. With the team in such a roll, going on the road should not be an issue. Let’s back Cleveland to cover the spread.
Evan Mobley to Record 10+ Rebounds (-122)
Fresh off his Defensive Player of the Year award win, I am looking at Evan Mobley to make an impact on the defensive end in this game. The Heat are well aware they cannot win this game if they get into a three-point shootout with the Cavaliers, so changing things up and getting Bam Adebayo and co. a little bit closer to the basket might just be their strategy for Game 3. And that’s where Mobley will leave his mark. Over his last 10 games Mobley is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game and although he was kept under 10 rebounds in the opening two games of this series, he did clear this line in 3 of the last 4 regular season games. With the level of physicality likely going up in this game, that’ll only benefit players like Mobley who spend most of their time closer to the basket. The last time he played at the Kaseya Center he finished with 15 rebounds, we can only hope he does something similar on Saturday.
Andrew Wiggins to Score 15+ Points (-170)
Andrew Wiggins has been a solid contributor for the Heat this season, ever since coming over from the Golden State Warriors in the Jimmy Butler trade. In 17 regular season games for Miami he established himself as the 2nd leading scorer behind Tyler Herro averaging 19 points per game on almost 46% efficiency from the field and 36% from three on 2.1 makes per game. Cleveland did a solid job on him in the first two games limiting his shot attempts to just 10 and 11, Wiggins still made the most out of it scoring in double figures both games. Now, with the series moving to South Beach for the next two games he should be able to elevate his shot attempts into the 15-17 range and as a result his production close to what it was in the regular season. We saw what impact he made in the two play-in games scoring 20 points in each of them, a performance like that would be massive for Miami as they try to avoid going down 3-0. In moments like this experience comes to play and not many Heat players have as much of that as Wiggins does.
