Matt Wiesenfeld
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Best Bet – Season Win Total Under 7.5
Worst Bet – To win the NFC +2500
The fortunes of Carolina will be determined by the health of QB Cam Newton. Of course, most teams will win or lose based on the production of their quarterback, but there might not be a team in the league that is more dependant on their signal caller than the Panthers, who might be using a rookie as the primary backup this season.
Three seasons ago Newton led the Panthers all the way to the Super Bowl where they lost to Denver. Last year they were 7-9 and finished second (tied) in the division. They have developed a habit of yo-yoing up and down from year to year, winning 11 or more in each of the last three odd years. That might mean they are due but I am not sure that is enough to go on.
Cam Newton is critical but thankfully he is not the entire offense. RB Christian McCaffery has quickly become one of the most productive and versatile backs in the NFL, so much so that they are actually looking to lighten his load a little.
Those are best laid plans really though as they were using a top pick to improve the offensive line. They were going to go there in the first round but an edge rusher was too good to pass up. They did take OT Greg Little in the second round and he may start. Cam is mobile but due to his style of play he has taken so many hits over the years. Now they are putting a rookie in there to protect his blindside. In addition to the health of Cam being a necessity, so might be the health of TE Greg Olsen. He has only played in 16 combined games the last two seasons. They need him to be Newton’s security blanket again for the offense to thrive. The receiving group otherwise is pretty thin.
For the longest time the Panthers have been one of the better defenses in the league, employing a stout 4-3. LB Luke Kuechly in the middle has been one of the most productive players in the league but things are going to look a little different this season.
They are switching to a 3-4 as they look to play to their strengths and personnel a little more. Making these kinds of switches can work but it still creates concerns. They are definitely going younger on defense too with the retirement of DE Julius Peppers and LB Thomas Davis leaving in free agency. Top pick DE/OLBBrian Burns is lightning quick and will look to create havoc from the outside and they have two strong linemen who can both occupy space and get up field in DTs Gerald McCoy and Kawann Short. To be an effective defense you have to be disruptive and that is what the Panthers are going for. They want to get a little more speed on the field and and a little better at disrupting all of the pass first offenses in the NFL.
Carolina Panthers Total Wins 7.5
The thing that strikes me most about this number is that it is just above the 7 wins they got last season and I have no confidence that they are going to be better than they were a year ago. Now you can’t necessarily compare every season equally because the schedule changes from year too year, and this season they are not getting any favors from the NFL schedule makers. They take on Tampa Bay in London and thus have close to a month without a home game in October. Throw in some questions about Newton and defensive alignment changes and it does not look promising. Recommendation: Take the Under
Odds to make the playoffs +215 Yes, -275 No
If you are going to forecast a team to be the second best in its division it is not so much of a stretch that they could win it or be the Wild Card. I do not see that kind of ceiling for Carolina this season. Even if Newton is healthy and playing well I am not sure they can be anything more than a .500 team and that won’t get you into the playoffs most seasons. You would need a bigger payoff on this one to pull the trigger. Recommendation: No
Odds to win NFC South +650
The odds on this one are better and deservedly so. I am not sure they are good enough though. Are these guys really much better than Tampa who is priced way better and has the potential advantage of a new coach turning things around instead of tinkering. There is that odd year thing where they either get better or take advantage of the schedule but there is still not enough payoff to grab my attention here. Recommendation: Pass here.
Odds to win NFC Conference +2500
The thought process here is similar to the division. +2500 is a nice win on any bet for sure but I think they are not giving enough value here, pricing Carolina as a team that is more likely to be average than below. I see them in the bottom, not middle tier and thus want more payoff if I am truly going to gamble on this one. If Cam misses any time then they really have no shot. Recommendation: Another Pass
Odds to win Super Bowl 54 +5000
Per the above, this team was in the Super Bowl only a few seasons ago. That might seem like ancient history but there are some guys still around. Obviously you have to get to the “Big Game” to win it but I like this prop better than winning the conference. Both are big time long shots but in this case the risk is more justifiable. I can see Cam feeling good and getting on a run and maybe coming through this time. Recommendation: Not a good investment but the payoff is at least fair.
