Ricky Dimon
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The rematch is on.
Following last summer’s thrilling Wimbledon final, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will once again battle for glory at the All-England Club on Sunday. Alcaraz was the underdog in 2023 but took down Djokovic in 5 sets. This time around it’s the 21-year-old who is the favorite, albeit not by a wide margin. Will Alcaraz successfully defend the title, or will the Serb turn the tide in his favor?
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for the men’s singles final.
Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 games over Novak Djokovic (-110)
I like Alcaraz on the money line at a -145 price, but the game spread also looks good since it is so small. A win and cover by the Spaniard can be expected. He got the best of Djokovic last season in London and that was when the 24-time major champion was at – or at least near – the height of his powers. Since then, to put it simply Alcaraz has improved and Djokovic has gotten worse. No, the 37-year-old has not fallen off a cliff; however, physical problems are mounting and even when healthy he has not won a single tournament in 2024. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is the reigning French Open champ and is now looking for 3 titles in the last 5 Grand Slams. Additionally, the world #3 has been the superior player this fortnight. He is coming off great performances against Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev, whereas Djokovic basically coasted through a weak bottom half of the bracket. The Serb is playing decent – but decent isn’t good enough to defeat Alcaraz.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Over 40.5 games (-110)
It goes without saying that Djokovic cannot be entirely discounted. He might not win, but he is still way too good to get blown out. In fact, not once in 5 head-to-head meetings has Djokovic lost in straight sets. Their only straight-setter has been a Djokovic victory at the 2023 year-end championship. Two of their 5 contests have required final-set tiebreakers, with Alcaraz prevailing 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5) at the 2022 Madrid Masters before Djokovic got the job done 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4) in the 2023 Cincinnati Masters championship match. Their memorable Wimbledon final last summer featured 46 games even though 2 of the sets were 6-1 scorelines. Asking for another long, entertaining showdown should not be too much
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Over 0.5 tiebreakers (-225)
Although the juice is sizable, there is still good value on at least 1 tiebreaker being played. Three of the 5 previous meetings between these 2 competitors have included at least 1 tiebreaker – and that’s despite the fact that only 2 of their encounters have been best-of-5 situations (Grand Slams). Two of their tussles have featured multiple tiebreakers. Five of their 17 total sets have progressed to ‘breakers and 3 others have resulted in 7-5 scorelines. Finally, it has to be emphasized that grass is the easiest surface on which to hold serve, thus generally yielding fewer breaks and therefore more tiebreakers. As expected, both finalists have done a good job holding their serves throughout the fortnight; Alcaraz has held 83 percent of his games and Djokovic is at 94 percent.
