Ricky Dimon
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The Wimbledon men’s singles final is Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic. Here are my best bets for Day 14 at the All-England Club.
It all comes down to Alcaraz vs Djokovic for the Wimbledon men’s singles title. Sunday’s championship match in London features the #1 and #2 players in the world, so on paper this has all the makings of a blockbuster battle. Will it live up to the hype? It’s time to break down the odds and reveal the best bets to be made for Day 14 at Wimbledon.
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Carlos Alcaraz +1.5 sets over Novak Djokovic (-120)
For this bet we need Carlos Alcaraz to either win the match outright or lose in a fifth set. I really don’t think asking him to win 2 sets is too much. Djokovic is a considerable favorite, and for good reason – he is the 4-time defending champion at Wimbledon and has won each of the first 2 Grand Slams in 2023. However, he hasn’t been entirely dominant this fortnight. Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev both took a set against him, while Jannik Sinner had 2 set points in the third set of their semifinal showdown. Meanwhile, Alcaraz is coming off impressive straight-set beatdowns of Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev. The Spaniard should be competitive and he could even win it outright.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic over 15.5 aces (-115)
Alcaraz has fired 39 aces through 6 matches, averaging 6.5 per outing, while Djokovic ranks 4th in the tournament overall with 66 aces (11 per contest). The finalists are averaging 17.5 combined, which is more than Sunday’s number of 15.5. And that’s their average despite not having played particularly long matches. If the championship match turns into a long, competitive battle, that gives it all the more reason to produce a whole bunch of aces. It should also be noted that Djokovic is getting aced at an absolutely shocking rate this fortnight. The 36-year-old has watched a ridiculous 84 aces whizz past him through 6 rounds. Yes, 33 of those came off the racket of big-serving Hubert Hurkacz, but even Jordan Thompson finished with an outrageous 21 in 3 sets and Pedro Cachin of all opponents struck 10 in his 3-set loss. I expect Alcaraz to hit a barrage of service missiles and Djokovic should chip in, too.
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Carlos Alcaraz over 3.5 double-faults (-140)
Alcaraz has double-faulted 23 times during this event. That’s an average of almost 4 per match. Keep in mind that he has played 4 straight-setters and just a pair of 4-setters, giving him 20 total sets played. That means he is averaging more than 1 double per set. Assuming today’s showdown goes 4 or 5, Alcaraz will likely soar over this number. And when you factor in the pressure of a slam final and the quality of opponent on the other side of the net, the 20-year-old will probably double-fault more than normal.
Carlos Alcaraz to hit more double-faults than Novak Djokovic (-190)
Even at a price of -190, this is a bet that absolutely cannot be passed up. Whereas Alcaraz has DFed on 23 occasions this fortnight, Djokovic has committed only 8 such mistakes. In fact, the world #2 has hit just 5 double-faults in his last 5 matches and he did not hit a single one against Sinner.
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