Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a lot of great games to look forward to in Week 12, but the best matchup of them all looks to be this showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles. Both sides came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations, although the Bills have floundered a bit recently. There’s only one way we know how to celebrate this highly anticipated matchup of heavyweights, with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 12 picks on sides and totals. And now let’s get right into this Bills vs Eagles SGP.
Buffalo Bills -6.5 alternate spread (+340)
Josh Allen 300+ passing yards (+240)
Parlay odds: +1305
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 13/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Buffalo Bills -6.5 alternate spread (+340)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Bills -6.5 on an alt. spread. For a few reasons, I don’t think the Eagles are nearly as good as their 9-1 record might suggest and I’m champing at the bit to fade them. Only 2 of their 9 wins have been by double digits despite the fact that they’ve faced plenty of bottom feeders, suggesting they’ve been far from dominant. Both of their games against the Commanders were super close for example, with Washington taking them down to the wire both times and even forcing overtime once.
Against the lowly Patriots in Week 1, New England was driving deep in the Eagles’ territory with a chance to take the lead in the closing seconds. The narrow win over the Chiefs last week required a massive meltdown from Kansas City that included boneheaded penalties and a fluke turnover. All the metrics indicate that Philly has been one of the luckiest teams in the league this year, and they’re due for some negative regression.
Jalen Hurts has already thrown 3 more interceptions than he did all of last season, and he’s been much less prolific as a runner than he usually is, most likely due to a couple of nagging injuries. And the Eagles are still without TE Dallas Goedert, which has been a big blow to their passing game.
Buffalo looked pretty great in their first game after moving on from OC Ken Dorsey, as they put up 32 points in a blowout win against a normally very stingy Jets defense. Josh Allen averaged 8.6 yards per attempt with 3 touchdowns against a Sauce Gardner-led secondary, quieting a lot of his critics in the process.
The Bills got a ton of negative press after a couple of close losses to the Bengals and Broncos, which was always clearly an overreaction. Now is the time to buy low in the market while you still can.
Josh Allen to have 300+ passing yards (+240)
All we need for this parlay to cash is a stellar effort from Allen, and we’re getting better than 13/1. With one of the league’s best players, that’s a bet I’ll take any day. Allen isn’t really having a down year like some of the media coverage may have led you to believe, and in fact he has a career-high in completion percentage. It might surprise you to learn his passer rating right now is actually higher than it was in either of the previous two seasons.
It might be tough for the Bills to run on Philly’s defensive front, so I’d expect Allen to be airing it out early and often. The Eagles are giving up the 5th-most passing yards per game in the NFL this season. Philadelphia’s secondary looked pretty good on Monday against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but that had more to do with the sorry state of Kansas City’s offense than anything else.
The Chiefs just don’t have any receivers who can exploit weaknesses. The week before against the Cowboys, the Eagles gave up 373 yards to Dak Prescott and got cooked by CeeDee Lamb to the tune of 191 yards. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of slowing down Stefon Diggs.
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