Andrew Ortenberg
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The Week 14 NFL slate is full of great matchups, and the crown jewel of the slate is this heavyweight showdown in the AFC between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Each team could really use a win, as the Bills have lost 3 of 4 while the Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Packers. There’s only one way to properly celebrate this highly anticipated clash, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 14 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Bills vs Chiefs SGP.
Buffalo Bills ML (-102)
Gabriel Davis 60+ receiving yards (+188)
James Cook 70+ receiving yards (+198)
Parlay odds: +992
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just shy of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Buffalo Bills ML (-102)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Bills straight up on the money line. This is an absolutely massive game for Buffalo, and thankfully it is coming off their bye week so it had extra time to prepare. Right before the bye the Bills lost a heartbreaker on the road in overtime to Philly in a game they should have won easily. The Bills have been a disappointment this season at 6-6, but their record is misleading. They have caught a ton of bad breaks, and all 6 of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer.
That tells me the Bills are due for some positive regression, and I believe it will come here against a highly overrated Chiefs team. Kansas City has been uninspiring the whole year and has only 2 wins all season against playoff teams (the Jaguars back in Week 2 and the Dolphins in Germany). Patrick Mahomes and the offense have been subpar for a while now, and the defense which was supposed to be the team’s strength just got exposed last week by Jordan Love and the Packers.
Mahomes is averaging just 7.0 yards per attempt — by far the worst mark of his career. The team just simply doesn’t have the weapons it needs, and Travis Kelce has clearly lost a step. Speaking of weapons and tight ends, the Bills will be getting a big boost as Dawson Knox has been activated off injured reserve just in time to play.
Gabriel Davis 60+ receiving yards (+188)
The Chiefs are going to shade most of their defensive attention toward slowing down Stefon Diggs, which should open things up for Davis. The fourth-year pro has been up and down this season, but he is coming off a game against the Eagles in which he got 12 targets and racked up 105 yards. And that game was played in the rain. Josh Allen has thrown for at least 315 yards each of the last 3 times he has faced the Chiefs, so I’m optimistic about Buffalo’s passing game.
Davis has his own history of success against Kansas City, too. He had 74 yards and a touchdown in last year’s matchup, and who could forget his historic 201-yard, 4-touchdown game against the Chiefs in the previous year’s playoffs? Davis has gotten to at least 56 yards in 6 of his past 11 games, and I think getting +188 here has standalone value — especially considering this game has the second-highest total on the board of any Week 14 matchup.
James Cook 70+ rushing yards (+198)
To wrap up this SGP we need Cook to clear 70 rushing yards. And I think this correlates heavily with our Bills money line leg, since if Buffalo is winning this game it likely means Cook is getting plenty of carries. Kansas City has been very vulnerable against the run this season, so expect Cook to be a big part of the game-plan. The Chiefs are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league.
Cook has been seeing increased volume recently; he has racked up 16+ carries in back-to-back games. Cook has rushed for at least 67 yards in 6 of his past 11, so I think getting 2/1 is a great value play for an addition to this SGP. Buffalo is going to want to set the tone with its run game, and volume is key when it comes to betting running back props.
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