Ricky Dimon
The AFC Championship was going to be epic regardless of the Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens outcome in the Divisional Round, but really can’t ask for a better matchup than this particular one. The Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs rivalry has been incredible dating back to the respective draft selections of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes – surely the NFL’s best rivalry that doesn’t involve team in the same division. They will lock horns again on Sunday evening at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 6:30 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Chiefs predictions.
Chiefs –2.5 (-105)
Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown (+190)
Josh Allen Over 48.5 rushing yards (-112)
Parlay odds: +1000
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Kansas City wide receiver Xavier Worthy scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Chiefs. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to rack up his fair share of rushing yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Chiefs -2.5 (-105)
With Allen and Mahomes under center, the Chiefs are 4-3 all time in the head-to-head matchup. Of course, that does not exactly tell the real story – at least not for this particular situation in an AFC Championship. The Chiefs are 3-0 against the Bills in the playoffs during this stretch, including a 38-24 romp in the conference title game during the 2020 season. Simply put, Kansas City owns Buffalo in the playoffs. It’s a big reason why head coach Andy Reid’s crew has won 3 Super Bowls dating back to 2019 while the Bills have never lifted the Lombardi Trophy in their entire existence as a franchise. Allen is great, but Mahomes is already a 3-time Super Bowl winner and 3-time Super Bowl MVP. It’s almost impossible to pick against him in the playoffs, especially at home. Moreover, Buffalo has 3 starters in the secondary listed who are listed as questionable (Taron Johnson, Taylor Rapp and Christian Benford) and linebacker Matt Milano is also banged up. Give me the Chiefs.
Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown (+190)
Another loss would be painful enough for the Bills, but just imagine if Worthy plays a big loss in their most recent playoff setback. Kansas City was able to acquire the former Texans standout late in the first round of last year’s NFL Draft thanks to a trade with none other than Buffalo. It would be no surprise if Worthy comes up big on Sunday. He scored 6 touchdowns during the regular season to go along with 59 catches on 98 targets for 638 yards. Worthy found the endzone in each of his last 2 regular-season contests and he came close to being the first TD scorer in last weekend’s victory over the Houston Texans but got tackled at the 1-yard line before Kareem Hunt ran it in. Against Buffalo in Week 12, the rookie went for went for 61 yards and a TD.
Josh Allen Over 48.5 rushing yards (-112)
Allen often takes matters into his own hands, but he does it to an even greater extent when the stakes are highest. And never are they higher than when it is the Chiefs on the other side of the field. In last season’s Divisional Round loss to K.C., he carried the ball 12 times for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns. In a 2021 Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs: 11 for 68. In the 2020 AFC Championship: 7 for 88. In last year’s regular-season win over Kansas City, Allen kept it 12 times for 55 yards and a score. In their 2023 regular-season matchup: 10 times for 32 yards and 1 TD. The Wyoming product ran for 46 yards in the Wild-Card Round against the Denver Broncos and scored twice on the ground against Baltimore. Allen is doing a ton of damage with his legs and that can be expected to continue once again versus the Chiefs.
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