There’s no denying what the most exciting game on the NFL Week 6 slate is and it’s not any of the primetime matchups. No, the 4.25pm ET contest between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs stands head and shoulders above the rest of the slate. Any contest between these AFC offensive powerhouses would be worth watching, but add in the backstory of the teams’ wild 42-36 overtime game in the divisional playoffs last season and the Bills being in the process of taking the status of the AFC’s top team from the Chiefs, and we have a real live one on our hands.
Can the Bills avenge that loss in Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday? The sportsbooks make them favorites to do so, and our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for the Bills vs Chiefs game including a player prop bet, so let’s break down the big game.
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NFL Week 6 Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction
Both teams come into this blockbuster of a game with 4-1 records after making generally impressive, but not perfect, starts to the season. The Chiefs has not looked any less of an offensive force despite the offseason loss of their star wide receiver Tyreek Hill, winning against the Cardinals, Chargers, Buccaneers and Raiders but suffering an unexpected loss to an otherwise average Colts team.
The Bills began the season as Super Bowl favorites and have had 3 wide-margin wins over the Rams, Titans and Steelers. They had to stage a brilliant comeback to beat the Ravens 23-20, though, and suffered their only loss on the road at Miami, losing 21-19.
The line for the game has moved slightly toward the Chiefs, from Bills -3 to Bills -2.5 this week, but this still looks set to be the first time the Chiefs have been home underdogs in the Patrick Mahomes era. Both teams will have a point to prove and a great game is in prospect on Sunday afternoon.
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Bills -2.5; Chiefs +2.5
Total points over/under: 53.5-54 points
Money line odds: Bills -140; Chiefs +125
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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs expert picks
Bills vs Chiefs against the spread pick: Bills -2.5 (-115) over Chiefs
The Chiefs have been one of the most dominant NFL teams over the last few years and while the Bills have been steadily on the rise, Kansas City has come out on top in 3 of their last 4 meetings, including last year’s wild overtime shootout in the playoffs. The Bills are 1-3 against the spread in those meetings after coming in as the underdog in 3 of them. But this is a new year which the Bills entered with a chip on their shoulder thanks to that playoff loss and they are now looking for revenge.
The key factor in this game is how the Bills defense matches up against Patrick Mahomes and his weapons. Injuries to safety Jordan Poyer, cornerback Christian Benford and linebacker Tremaine Edwards have hampered the Bills in recent weeks, but Poyer and Edmunds are trending up for this week’s game. That’s going to make things difficult for Kansas City as the Chiefs receivers still look like they are struggling to get on the same page as Mahomes.
His work with Travis Kelce is above reproach, but the Bills rank first overall in DVOA against the tight end position, so it’s going to come down to effectiveness running the ball and whether or not a secondary pass-catcher can come up big. Unfortunately for Kansas City’s defense, Josh Allen and his receivers are playing on a whole other level right now. There is no rest for the weary as we’ve witnessed them run up the score on soft pass defenses and they don’t take their foot off the gas at all. The Chiefs have struggled in coverage this season and have coughed up 12 passing touchdowns with opposing quarterbacks posting a 105.5 passer rating against them. Give Allen that much to work with and he’s going to burn you. Take the Bills.
Be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
Bills vs Chiefs over/under total pick: Over 53.5 (-115)
It is always tough to make a pick on the over/under for a game like this because people tend to bet what they want to see rather than what they will see. A game total of around 54 plays right into the shootout narrative as people expect this game to go the same way as the previous 3 meetings in which the game total averaged 66 points. We have full confidence in Buffalo’s ability to score points, but can Kansas City match them and keep pace?
If there is one thing we have learned over the past few seasons is that you never count out Patrick Mahomes. Far too many people were giving him up for dead when Tyreek Hill left, but through 5 games, his completion rate hasn’t changed, he’s averaging 280 passing yards per game and he has 15 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. He’s even rushed for almost 100 yards on 17 carries. It doesn’t matter who the weapons are, he continues to deliver.
Mahomes has faced some tough defenses in the Chargers and Buccaneers, but the Bills are a different story. Completely healthy, we might be concerned that this game could get a little lopsided. However, with some key injuries still lingering for Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edwards, even if they play, they may not be at 100% and weaknesses in those spots are often exploited by a quarterback of Mahomes’ caliber. It may not quite be the wild, wild west, but we should have some sort of a shootout.
Bills vs Chiefs best player prop bet: Travis Kelce over 77.5 passing yards (-110)
This matchup is like a playoff game for both teams. And for that we have to revert back to Travis Kelce’s production against the Bills in playoffs over the last 2 years: 118 yards and 96 yards. Kelce has hit this figure in only 2 games this season, but he is still averaging 8 targets per game.
The Chiefs have been shown a surprising amount of man coverage this season, but the Bills enter the game still banged up on defense. We can expect the Chiefs to see a lot more zone looks than they have this season, which bodes well for Kelce. He has a team-high 18 targets for 13.6 yards per reception against zone coverage in 2022. The increased amount of man coverage could explain the down numbers we have seen lately from Kelce. Play this up to over 79.5.
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Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs expert predictions
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