Ricky Dimon
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Thanksgiving week is here, which means we have 3 Thursday games on the NFL schedule. It all gets started with the Detroit Lions hosting the Buffalo Bills. The Lions, of course, are no strangers to playing on Thanksgiving. Will their experience help them keep it close against the heavily-favored Bills?
Below is our SGP for the Thanksgiving Day opener, and also be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions picks on the side and total.
Lions +7.5 alternate spread (+112)
Jamaal Williams to score a touchdown (+100)
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+105)
Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Jamaal Williams finding the endzone would obviously work well with a Detroit cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Josh Allen to score a touchdown. But even if Allen puts points on the board with his legs, the Lions may be able to keep this one close. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
Lions +7.5 alternate spread (+112)
The Bills’ offense has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks, which could allow the Lions – as bad as their defense is – to stay within a touchdown. If there is one good thing to say about this Detroit defense, it’s that the unit has held 3 straight opposing QBs to post drop back EPA numbers below their season average. Meanwhile, Lions’ offense is finally getting healthy and with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift essentially at 100% to go along with the return of DJ Chark this past week, they have enough weapons to compete. Where Detroit clearly owns an advantage is in the run game, thanks to a stellar OL facing a small Bills defensive front. Don’t be surprised if this contest is competitive.
Jamaal Williams to score a touchdown (+100)
Williams rushed for 3 touchdowns against the Giants last week, paving the way to a 31-18 upset. That gives him a league-leading 12 for the year. It is also worth noting that Williams has gotten at least 16 carries in each of the last 3 games, and it’s safe to say he is making the most of his opportunities. Buffalo’s defense is solid, but it is even better against the pass than it is against the run. Look for Williams to continue his success.
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+105)
The Bills have lost 2 of their last 3 games and during this stretch Allen has thrown only 2 touchdown passes. In the last 3 games, Allen is 16th in completion percentage over expected and 17th in EPA per drop back out of 29 QBs. It’s hard to know how big of an issue that elbow really is. Whatever the case, he may be more inclined to do damage with his feet on Thursday. The Lions are allowing the most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (42.2) and have given up 5 TDs on the ground to QBs. For the season, Allen has kept it 71 times for 483 yards and 4 scores – including 2 against the Jets earlier this month.
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