Week 12 of the NFL season begins with a trio of game on Thanksgiving, including an opening game at 12:30 pm ET on FOX featuring the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions. The Lions, of course, are no strangers to playing on Thanksgiving Day. Will their experience help them keep it close against the high-powered Bills?
Our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet for the showdown.
Get our NFL picks and NFL predictions for EVERY Week 12 matchup!
Clevta’s Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions best bet: Lions +9 (-110)
If this game was taking place a few weeks ago, I probably would shy away from the Lions. But ever since that game at the Jets, Josh Allen just doesn’t look the same and making the Bills mere mortals. In the last 3 games, Allen is 16th in completion percentage over expected and 17th in EPA per drop back out of 29 QBs. There is something that is just a bit off for that offense. It’s still obviously very good but I think as bad as the Lions defense has played, they should be able to get off the field just enough to cover this game. In fact, this Lions’ defense has held 3 straight opposing QBs to post drop back EPA numbers below their season average.
This Lions’ offense is finally getting healthy and with St. Brown and Swift essentially at 100%, to go with the return of WR DJ Chark this past week, the Lions have enough weapons to compete. And where the Lions clearly have an advantage is in the run game and with their stellar OL against the small Bills defensive front. The Buffalo defensive line is built to rush the passer, not defend the run. So whenever they have to face a really good run game like the Lions, the Bills struggle to defend. Although the Bills did a nice job by stacking the box and doing everything they could to slow down the Browns run game, since Week 8, the Bills’ run defense ranks 29th against the run, allowing a 48.6% success rate. After not allowing a single run offense to produce more than 2.9 yards before contact per rush in the first six games, they’ve allowed three of the last four offenses to produce over 3 yards before contact per rush. The Lions can bully smaller defenses at times and after coming off an impressive 4.1 ybc/rush against the Giants, are now a top 5 offense in that regard and the best run offensive line the Bills will have faced.
Be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions predictions
If we look to an apples to apples comparison with this spread, the Lions were just 3.5-point home underdogs to the Miami Dolphins just three weeks ago. There is no way anyone would say that the Dolphins are 5.5 points worse than Buffalo, which is what this line is implying. I believe that this line should be right around 7.5 but because the books want to protect from a Buffalo/Dallas teaser — which will be very popular on Thanksgiving — we are seeing this number trickle up through 8.5 to the 9 number. Therefore, there is a good 1-1.5 point of value here in my opinion.
And there is no team you’d rather have in a backdoor situation, if you need it, than the Lions. Since Dan Campbell took over last year, the Lions are 4-0 ATS as home underdog of 7 or more points, winning two of those games. Even further, the Lions are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs of at least 3 points. No matter if there is a large deficit early in games, the Lions will most certainly not quit and play for that backdoor cover potential.
NFL Week 12 Promo Codes
- FanDuel Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $125 in Free Bets — PICKSWISE EXCLUSIVE
- BetMGM Promo Code: Bet $10 Win $200 if either NFL Team scores a TD
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5+ On Any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins
- Caesars Promo Code: Up To $1,250 Back On Your First Bet + 1000 Tier Credits + 1000 Reward Credits®
- PointsBet Promo Code: Get 4x $200 Second-Chance Bets For The NFL
Find all the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes and Bonuses for NFL Week 12, including sportsbooks live in your state.
Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
