The Buffalo Bills are locked in a race with the Kansas City Chiefs for the #1 seed in the AFC and can’t afford to take their foot off the gas as they head to Chicago to play the Bears on Christmas Eve (1:00pm ET, CBS). In stark contrast, the Bears are one of the 5 teams who have already been eliminated from playoff contention and that’s not surprising given their 3-11 record. Our expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this Bills vs Bears Week 16 matchup at Soldier Field on Saturday.
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NFL Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears expert predictions
On paper, there is little to dislike about the Bills’ 2022 season to date, with 11 wins and 3 losses, which came by a combined 8 points and were all to playoff contending teams in the Dolphins, Jets and Vikings. Two of those losses were back-to-back after a 6-1 start, but the Bills have since built another 5-game winning streak. Even so, observers believe the Bills have not looked quite the force they were expected to be in recent games, and they were really made to scrap to keep that run going in a 32-29 home win over the Dolphins last week.
The Bears are on a 7-game losing run and have lost 10 of their last 11 overall after a deceptive 2-1 start to the season. They have been more competitive in their last 2 outings against strong teams in the Packers and Eagles, however. QB Justin Fields recorded 95 rushing yards against Philly to become only the third quarterback after Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson (twice) to have 1,000 in a season. Let’s take a look at the odds for Saturday’s Bills vs Bears game.
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at time of publishing.
Point spread: Bills -8.5, Bears +8.5
Total points over/under: 40.5 points
Money line odds: Bills -400, Bears +310
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Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears expert picks
We’ve got 2 smart NFL picks for the game between the Bills and Bears.
Bills vs Bears point spread pick: Bears +8.5 (-110)
The Bears continue to play exciting football – just not winning football. The Bills continue to just win. Buffalo’s offense should be able to run on the Bears’ defense that’s one of the worst in the NFL. Weather will play a factor, as they are expecting 15-20 mph winds in Chicago. How much that neutralizes the Bills passing game should be something to watch. The Bears’ defense managed to keep the Eagles’ high-scoring offense to just 25 points last week. Still, because of Justin Fields, the Bears average more yards per point and yards per rush than Buffalo and lead the NFL in rushing yards at home at 213 yards per game on the ground.
That’s enough for me to continue to trust one of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks at home. The Bills are a .500 ATS on the road this season and have covered in only 1 of their last 7 games when favored by at least a touchdown. I’ll back the Bears getting more than a touchdown.
Be sure to check out our full Bills vs Bears predictions
Bills vs Bears over/under totals pick: Under 40.5 (-110)
This is a low total for two teams that have trended to the over this season. Much of that may have to do with the weather and high winds that are expected. Plus, the large spread makes this a tough number for the Bills to cover and stay under. The Bills have not gone over the total in a single road game this year at 0-7. Conversely, the Bears are 9-5 to the over this season and had a streak of 7 consecutive overs snapped last week against the Eagles. The weather may be too much for Buffalo to score their typical amount of points, and the Bills’ defense may be able to contain Justin Fields enough to limit the Bears’ scoring as well. Although both of these teams routinely score in the 20s, I’ll put a small contrarian play on the under.
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