I’m Brian Scalabrine, an 11-year NBA vet and member of the world champion 2008 Boston Celtics. Moving forward I’ll be writing regular columns here at Pickswise, giving my thoughts on the NBA betting market. It’s been a busy week in the association, and there’s a lot to digest.
Today we’ll be talking about two series’ that are tied at one game apiece. We’ll start with the Bucks/Celtics series before getting to Warriors/Grizzlies, and then we’ll wrap things up with my best bet for the weekend’s slate.
Check out Pickswise’s best bets for all NBA playoff games
Bucks/Celtics up in the air
It’s hard to say how the rest of this series will unfold, because neither team has played their best basketball. I’m sure this series will settle in, and we’ll be able to say a lot more about who is the best of the best after Game 3 and Game 4. But we can’t make too many assumptions right now.
A lot of people were jumping all over the Bucks after their Game 1 win, and now everybody is jumping all over the Celtics after Game 2. Let’s not overreact and declare a winner yet. This is the series where there’s the most uncertainty, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.
I’m curious to see if this group of Celtics players has it in them. I don’t feel like they’ve had a signature road win, and now is their chance. If they can get one of these two games in Milwaukee it would be a massive moment for this squad.
I can’t say quite yet who is going to be advancing here once the dust settles, but there is an angle I like. If you like player props, you’d be wise to look at the assist numbers and threes made for Celtics players. The Bucks are conceding the three-point shot and they’re going to continue doing that throughout this series. Milwaukee is making a conscious effort to take away the point, and it looks like that’s the way it’s going to be for the rest of the series.
Warriors have clear upper hand over Grizzlies
The most contentious series in the NBA playoffs is Warriors/Grizzlies. You got Draymond Green getting ejected, Dillon Brooks getting ejected and Gary Payton II breaking his elbow. So what does this mean? It means you can count on Ja Morant having big nights moving forward. It seems like when you watch this series, nobody on the Warriors besides Payton has been able to slow him down.
Payton was the only guy playing defense at a high enough level to be a problem for Ja. As soon as he went out, Morant had a career night and Memphis got the win in Game 2. But let’s not get carried away. When you break down this series, the Warriors are still the much better basketball team.
They spread you out, move the ball and get open shots. They’re going to be feeling good at home, and I think Golden State takes care of business in both Game 3 and Game 4. Memphis may be able to squeak out Game 5 at home, but there’s no part of me that thinks they’re going to be able to come back into this series.
The Warriors are content with Morant getting his and taking everyone else out. Morant’s numbers are going to go up with Payton out and the Warriors being committed to taking away Desmond Bane and the rest of the supporting cast. I’d play the over on some Morant props but the Warriors for the series and on the spread in the next couple of games.
Scal’s best NBA betting pick for Saturday’s slate: Celtics @ Bucks over 213
My favorite pick for Saturday’s slate is over 213 in Celtics/Bucks. We’ve had two atrocious offensive performances in this series, one by Milwaukee and one by Boston. Look for both teams to have a great offensive game here. This series is due for a breakout. Everyone is talking about the defenses at the moment, but it’s been a small two-game sample size where each team was still feeling the other out. Both coaches have now settled in and found their adjustments and are going to go in full throttle for Game 3.
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