Andrew Ortenberg
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March Madness is officially here. The 2022 NCAA Tournament will get underway this week, and we can’t wait. Here are Pickswise we’ll have all sorts of content to get you primed, so keep an eye on our March Madness hub. Each year, one of the best parts of the tournament are the #5 vs #12 matchups in the first round.
It’s an annual upset-fest, and at least one or two #12 seeds always seem to advance past the Round of 64. This year we’ll have another four great matchups (we won’t know who #5 Saint Mary’s is playing until Indiana and Wyoming complete their play-in game), and I think there are a couple of wagering opportunities. Let’s dive into all of them:
History of #5 vs #12 March Madness matchups
Before we analyze this year’s games, we’ll take a quick look back at some recent history. #12 seeds are always a popular upset pick for anyone filling out a bracket. And it’s not hard to see why. Since 1985, there have been 51 #12 seeds to emerge victorious from the first round. They’ve got a winning percentage north of 35 percent overall.
Just last year, we all witnessed Oregon State go on a miracle run to the Elite Eight as a #12 seed. They knocked off Tennessee in the first round to spark their run. There’s been at least one #12 seed to win their first game in 31 of the past 36 seasons. There have been some years where they outright dominate, like in 2019 when three different #12 seeds won.
Without further ado, we bring you the 2022 #5 vs #12 matchups…
#5 UConn (-7) vs #12 New Mexico State
We’ll start things off in the West region. We only know three of the matchups, but so far UConn is the shortest favorite of any of the #5 seeds. Oddsmakers currently have them as a favorite of around -7 over New Mexico State. The Huskies racked up some wins over the last handful of weeks of the season, although some of them were very close. UConn’s two top leading scorers, senior point guard R.J. Cole and sophomore forward Adama Sanogo both didn’t play very well their last few games, which would have me concerned if I were laying this many points with them.
However, I’m not exactly running to grab the points with New Mexico State either. The Aggies certainly weren’t playing their best ball to close the season, as they picked up a couple of bad losses late. It’s hard to get too excited about a team that just recently lost to 7-25 Chicago State. Personally, this is the #5/#12 matchup that I’m avoiding.
#5 Iowa (-10.5) vs #12 Richmond
In the Midwest region, we have a potentially live ‘dog. We all know how important experience is this time of year, and Richmond has a boatload of it. Incredibly, four of their top five scorers are fifth or sixth-year seniors. Big man Grant Golden, their second-leading scorer and rebounder, has been with the team since the 2016-17 campaign. The Spiders aren’t going to be fazed by Iowa’s fast pace, and they have the offense to hang here.
Richmond has three different guys who average at least 13.3 points per game, and Iowa’s defense has been shaky all year. The Hawkeyes are getting too much credit for a Big Ten Tournament run where I didn’t think they looked all that impressive, and they would’ve got upset by Indiana if not for an epic Hoosiers collapse. I’m taking double digits with Richmond here all day long.
Check out our free picks on the side and total for every NCAA Tournament game!
#5 Houston (-8.5) vs #12 UAB
While we wait to find out who Saint Mary’s will play, our last matchup is Houston/UAB. The Cougars are an 8.5-point favorite, and nothing about that spread jumps out to me. The total, however, is intriguing. It’s no secret that Houston has one of the best defenses in the country, and their physicality will be even more overwhelming than usual in a March Madness chaotic environment. In the AAC Championship Game, they completely smothered Memphis.
The Tigers had a high-flying offense that played at a very fast pace all year. Houston held them to 53 points in the biggest game of the season. In four of their past six games, the Cougars have given up 56 points or fewer. Houston plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, and they aren’t going to let UAB slow them down here. I’m leaning heavily toward the under 135 in this one.
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