Are you missing baseball, too? For those that don’t know me, hello! My name is Keith Schmelter and I was the most profitable MLB writer on the Pickswise staff last season. I finished +37.6 units on money line/run-line picks, +52.9 units on game totals, and +39.3 units (21-6-1) on 3-star plays for Pickswise. I am a diehard baseball fan with an even greater passion for statistics, and I love to watch and bet on baseball. While the MLB is in a lockout, I will be analyzing every MLB team and giving my predictions for their 2022 season.
I have already looked at the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees, so now let’s take a look at the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox breakdown
2022 World Series odds: +2200
2022 AL East odds: +550
2021 record: 92-70
2021 O/U record: 74-85-3
Key players in: Trevor Story (2B), Michael Wacha (SP), Rich Hill (SP), James Paxton (SP), Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF), Matthew Strahm (RP), Jake Diekman (RP)
Key players out: Eduardo Rodriguez (SP), Hunter Renfroe (OF), Adam Ottavino (RP)
Story of last season
After finishing with the fourth-worst record (24-36) in the MLB in 2020, the Red Sox stunned everyone by making it to the ALCS in 2021. Their offense was above-average for most of the season (+80 run differential), but it was their pitching that routinely got them in trouble. Nathan Eovaldi was forced into the role of the ace since Chris Sale was recovering from Tommy John surgery until late September and Eovaldi did well with a 3.75 ERA, but the problem was the rest of the pitching staff. Eduardo Rodriguez, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Richards, and Martin Perez all had ERAs over 4.50, which became a serious problem since their bullpen finished 27th in ERA and 28th in WHIP in 2021.
However, there were a great deal of positives from the 2021 season like the acquisition of Kyle Schwarber, who immediately made an impact in the lineup, Kiké Hernandez hitting .408 with a 1.260 OPS in the post-season, and Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock — who had a 1.96 ERA in 73.1 innings. And fortunately for the Red Sox, the core of the team is returning for the 2022 season.
Boston Red Sox 2022 MLB season predictions
With a lot of questions surrounding Boston’s plans for the 2022 season, a crucial one got answered fast. Designated hitter J.D. Martinez opted-in to his player option. Martinez hit a solid .286 with a .288 xBA as well as recording the most doubles in his career, which gives hope for another good season from the 34-year-old. The young core of the Red Sox is primarily made up of their left side of the infield: Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. Bogaerts earned his third career all-star appearance in 2021 and cemented his status as the best shortstop in the game alongside the 25-year-old baby-faced Devers, who hit .279 with a .890 OPS.
With just a few weeks until Opening Day, Boston finally made a splash in free agency and signed Trevor Story to a 6-year, $140 million contract. Story, snubbed of a Gold Glove in 2019, has decided to transition from shortstop to second base in order to play for Boston. Story has the tendency to pull that ball which is a perfect fit in Boston with the Green Monster in left field.
All of this sounds good. So where’s the bad? The Red Sox had one of the worst infield defense ratings in the league, they lost starter Eduardo Rodriguez to the suddenly competitive Tigers, Renfroe was traded to the Brewers (there were rumors of him packing his stuff before the wild-card game), and they still have a hole at first base. But prior to the lockout, the Red Sox signed veteran pitchers Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and James Paxton to help their pitching problems. The thing is, I mean veteran pitchers. Hill is a 41-year-old who can’t throw 90 miles per hour anymore and the 33-year-old Paxton might not even be able to throw a pitch in 2022 due to his recovery from Tommy John surgery.
As much as Red Sox fans wanted Schwarber back, he wasn’t the right fit. With second-year first baseman Bobby Dalbec hitting .269 with a .955 OPS in the second half of the 2021 season, he made his case to have the starting spot. They also have baseball’s #18 ranked prospect Triston Casas expected to reach the big leagues in 2022 and the 6’4” power hitter has made it known to the Red Sox organization that he’s ready for the show.
I think the Red Sox are being undervalued at +2200 odds to win the World Series as well as having the fourth-best odds to win the AL East. They added Story and loaded up on veteran relief pitchers for cheap, so they did everything they could to compete with their division. Boston’s odds to win the division and World Series will only get shorter the closer we get to Opening Day, so if you’re interested in backing the Red Sox I would take them now.
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