Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
March Madness may refer to college basketball’s postseason, but it would also be an accurate way to describe the professional tennis calendar. Masters 1000s are the second-highest level of tournaments on tour behind Grand Slams and there are 2 of them this month — back-to-back in Palm Springs, California and Miami, Florida. It’s the so-called “Sunshine Double.”
Basically every top player — even Rafael Nadal is back! — is lacing ‘em up in Indian Wells this coming fortnight. That includes Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek, who are the top-ranked players and considerable favorites to capture the titles in “Tennis Paradise.”
With main-draw competition beginning on Wednesday, it’s time to break down the odds. I nailed my 3-star futures bets on both the men’s and women’s sides at the Australian Open, so let’s keep the momentum going!
ATP Indian Wells odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +175
Jannik Sinner +310
Carlos Alcaraz +400
Daniil Medvedev +750
Alexander Zverev +2500
Alex de Minaur +2700
Stefanos Tsitsipas +4000
Ben Shelton +4000
Casper Ruud +4000
Andrey Rublev +4000
Rafael Nadal +4000
Taylor Fritz +5000
Holger Rune +5000
Hubert Hurkacz +5000
Ugo Humbert +5000
ATP Indian Wells 3-star best bet: Jannik Sinner (+310)
I backed Sinner as my 3-star best bet at the Australian Open and he delivered at +700 odds. The third-ranked Italian also triumphed last month in Rotterdam, so he is a perfect 12-0 in 2024. Until Sinner actually loses a match, I’m not getting off the bandwagon. The 22-year-old was outstanding throughout the Sunshine Double last season, reaching the Indian Wells semifinals (lost to Carlos Alcaraz) before finishing runner-up in Miami (lost to Daniil Medvedev). Sinner has a good draw on the opposite side from Djokovic and Medvedev, so look for his incredible hot streak to continue.
ATP Indian Wells 2-star value play: Alex de Minaur (+2700)
Perhaps no man outside of Sinner has been hotter than De Minaur in 2024. The 25-year-old has established himself in the top 10 of the ATP rankings (currently right on the number in 10th) thanks in part to a runner-up performance in Rotterdam and a title this past week on the hard courts of Acapulco. De Minaur is surging into Indian Wells with a 15-4 record for the season. The Aussie has never done a whole lot at this particular event, but playing conditions should actually be quite good for his game; there is no reason why he can’t find success here. Given how confident he is at the moment, that success could finally come now.
ATP Indian Wells 1-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+5000)
Fritz is not only an American but also a Californian, so he enjoys a significant home-court advantage. Ever since he was kid this has been his favorite tournament, and sure enough he won it in 2022 — upsetting Nadal in the championship match. It was no fluke, either. Fritz also advanced to the semifinals in 2021 and to the quarters last spring. This is simply and without question his best event. The world #12 heads into his next appearance in the desert in stellar form, too. He reached the last eight at Melbourne Park and kicked off the U.S. swing with a title in Delray Beach.
WTA Indian Wells odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +275
Aryna Sabalenka +350
Elena Rybakina +600
Coco Gauff +650
Jessica Pegula +2500
Qinwen Zheng +2800
Jelena Ostapenko +2800
Marketa Vondrousova +4000
Anna Kalinskaya +4000
Mirra Andreeva +4000
Elina Svitolina +5000
Liudmila Samsonova +5000
Maria Sakkari +5000
Jasmine Paolini +5000
Ons Jabeur +5000
Naomi Osaka +5000
WTA Indian Wells 3-star best bet: Iga Swiatek (+275)
Swiatek’s odds at any tournament are generally too low to play and I’m still not jumping up and down about +275, but there is finally enough value on her to take the bait. The world #1’s odds are higher than usual due to her recent losses at the Australian Open (third round to Linda Noskov) and in Dubai (semifinals to Anna Kalinskaya), but in between she won a 1000-point event in Doha. Conditions in Indian Wells are great for Swiatek, who lifted the trophy in 2022 and advanced to the semifinals last year.
WTA Indian Wells 2-star value play: Coco Gauff (+650)
Gauff has a nice draw opposite Swiatek and should be able to capitalize. Because of extremely high expectations, public perception is that the 19-year-old American has struggled a bit this season. Yes, her last 2 tournaments have not been great — she already has one title under her belt (defeated Elina Svitolina in the Auckland final) and made it to the Australian Open semifinals. Her best Indian Wells performance came in the form of a quarterfinal effort last spring; 12 months later and now a Grand Slam champion (2023 U.S. Open), it would not be a surprise to see Gauff go all the way.
WTA Indian Wells 1-star value play: Elina Svitolina (+5000)
Svitolina is in resurgent form following the birth of her first child, with a quarterfinal performance at the 2023 French Open followed by a semifinal run at Wimbledon. She has won four WTA 1000 tournaments throughout her career, including 2 on hard courts. None has come in Indian Wells, but the Ukrainian at least reached the semifinals of this event in 2019. Svitolina has a relatively favorable draw in the desert, as she would not face Gauff until the semis and Swiatek until the final
