Diane Knox Balas
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What a Sunday finish at the FedEx St Jude Championship! Not only did we see a playoff IN the playoff, but we were treated to three extra holes of drama-packed action between Will Zalatoris and Sepp Straka. Never had I seen both players have to take penalty drops on the same hole while battling for a win! Willy Z eventually got his elusive first victory on the PGA Tour, but it just shows how tough it is to finish first out there. What a time for him to get it done.
Just like that in these FedExCup Playoffs, Zalatoris jumps all the way to No. 1 in the standings, knocking Scottie Scheffler off the top spot after he missed the cut at TPC Southwind. Straka jumps up from No. 35 to No. 8, and Wyndham Clark is the “bubble boy” at No. 70. Adam Scott made a huge leap from No. 77 to No. 45 after his T5 finish last week, and Lucas Glovers shoots from 121st to 34th after coming in 3rd in Memphis.
Last week shows that really anything can happen within these playoffs, and the rewards/implications are huge. Top names like Scheffler, McIlroy and Spieth all missed the cut, and then we see Straka losing in a playoff after missing six consecutive cuts coming into the week!
Also, worth noting that No. 2 in the standings, Cam Smith, has withdrawn from the tournament, citing “hip discomfort”. It’ll be an all-or-nothing situation for Cam at East Lake now, who’s rumored to be heading to LIV after the conclusion of the playoffs. The top-70 have advanced to the second round, and it’s off to Delaware for the BMW Championship. After this week, the top 30 will compete for the FedExCup and $18 million, and then next week at the Tour Championship in Atlanta.
Wilmington CC: What you need to know
Wilmington Country Club is hosting a PGA Tour event for the first time, so we don’t have any course history to take into account for our picks.
It’s a 7,534 yard par-71, so right away, it looks as though length will be a factor. I’m also going to be looking at form from last week, where guys are sitting in the FedExCup standings, and the motivation to climb up and get in the best position possible for next week, bearing in mind the staggered scoring comes into effect. If you missed the breakdown of how it all works, I wrote about it here.
The course has recently undergone a series of renovations to prepare for the BMW Championship, with the addition of 200 yards and several new bunkers. They’ve also played around with the routing of the course to balance the two nines and allow space for hospitality tents. For example, No. 16 this week is usually the 11th hole, and the 17th is usually No. 12. The closing hole is a 446-yard dogleg-left par-4, with an uphill approach shot and a green surrounded by bunkers.
Knox’s Knockout BMW Championship picks
Jon Rahm (+1400)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If I’m picking guys based on distance off the tee plus current form and motivation, it’s a case of “look no further than Rahm”. After the birth of his son, he played last week in the FedEx Championship and – pretty quietly – finished in a tie for 5th. He was 3rd off the tee, 1st in scrambling and 1st in greens in reg, showing his game is sharp overall. Plus, we know how well he can drive the ball. Sitting at 14th in the standings, he’s primed to make a big jump this week and get in a really strong position for the Tour Championship.
Justin Thomas (+1600)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We don’t have any PGA Tour course history at Wilmington CC, but it did host the Arnold Palmer Cup in 2013, and JT was on the winning US team. Hey, a little course knowledge and winning vibes can go a long way! Also, when looking at course comparisons, Quail Hollow seems the closest, and that was the venue for Thomas’ PGA Championship win in ’17. Justin sits 10th in the FedExCup standings entering the week after a T13 last week in Memphis. We all see how competitive a player he has been, and how much he wants to lift that FedExCup next week, so I feel he’ll have a good week on a course he’s familiar with.
Cameron Young (+2800)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Big-hitting Cameron Young had a disappointing last week, by his recent standards, finishing in a tie for 31st. Cam and Will were the two names that would immediately spring to mind when talking about great players still seeking their debut win, and I’d like to think Zalatoris’ victory would fuel Cameron’s competitive juices even more. With an incredible rookie season under his belt with FIVE runner-up finishes, he’ll be looking to end it on a high and move up from 13th in the standings before the Tour Championship. I’m also taking him at +550 for a top-5.
Brian Harman (+7500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If you’ve followed along with my picks this season, you’ll know Brian Harman has appeared more than a few times. He had a tremendous week last week, finishing T3 around TPC Southwind, propelling him up to No. 23 in the FedExCup standings. He was top-10 last week tee-to-green, in approach and greens in regulation, and season-long is 16th in driving accuracy. That stat will always bode well around an unfamiliar course. His putting number fell back a little last week, but after the consistency we’ve seen from Harman on the greens all season, I don’t expect that to last for long. I’m banking on a strong finish to an already-strong season.
BMW Championship Prop Bets
Tony Finau top-5 finish (+300)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We’ve recently seen back-to-back wins AND a top-5 last week at the FedEx Championship. This great play of Finau’s isn’t slowing down, and at 3/1 I’m betting on him to keep it going this week. He’s a huge hitter, his game has been dialed in, and he was still within the top-10 in putting last week. Already at No. 5 in the standings, Finau’s goal is to win the FedExCup next week, and another top-5 would put him in prime position.
Adam Scott top-10 finish (+450)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
What an end to the season Scott is having! He needed a huge week in Memphis to make it to the BMW Championship, and his T5 sure did it for him. The Aussie was 1st in strokes gained and putting last week and 12th around the greens, and he’s a big hitter, which will work well at Wilmington. I’m fully onboard with Adam to make it all the way to the end.
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