Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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You will hear this a lot in the pregame, but this is the first matchup between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Currently, the Bengals (+1.5) are still the defending AFC champions, and the Bills are currently inclined to take that title. The top 3 in the AFC are still jockeying for seeding (KC, BUF, CIN) and this matchup will send a statement to the loser should they meet up again in January.
On paper, Buffalo is the better team defensively and slightly better offensively, but as Joe Mixon pointed out this week, the Bengals are the “big dog of the AFC “and “for anything to happen, it goes through us”. I’m personally excited for a primetime matchup of this caliber, so let’s take a look at some player props.
Our Bengals vs Bills Same Game Parlay has +1131 odds!
Ja’Marr Chase over 81.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It feels cheap. To take an over on such a big-name player in a primetime spot, but let’s look at the details. The Bills secondary is easily the weakest position group on the team and Chase will likely matchup with CB Dane Jackson, ranked 88th out of 121 cornerbacks according to PFF. Buffalo is ranked 26th overall in DVOA vs WR1s. Cooper Kupp, George Pickens, Juju Smith-Schuster, Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson and Amari Cooper all hit this number vs the Bills. As far as Chase, he hit this in both home games since returning from injury and for his career averages 107 y/g at home. This is the best line I’ve found and it’s as high as 83.5 on some books. 1.5U
Be sure to check out our best touchdown scorer bets for MNF!
Joe Burrow over 12.5 rushing yards (-122)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m going back to this angle from last week on Burrow. It did not pay off the way I had hoped, but he still finished with 3 rush attempts. The angle is that teams who get pressure on QBs without blitzing are more susceptible to QB runs. The Bills rank top 10 in pressure rate (23.1%) and 23rd in blitz rate. Burrow at home averages 15.5 rushing yards per game and this is an opportunity to outshine Josh Allen in a primetime matchup. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals predictions
Bills vs Bengals anytime TD scorer picks
Ja’Marr Chase (+120)
Isaiah McKenzie (+420)
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