Sam Avellone
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It was a successful season for the Big Ten in 2023, as Michigan became the first representative of the conference to win the national title since Ohio State did so in 2014 – the first year of the 4-team playoff. Oddly enough, the Wolverines won the championship in the final iteration of said playoff – so the Big Ten began and ended that era of college football on a high note. A national championship notwithstanding, Jim Harbaugh bolted to coach the Los Angeles Chargers and was replaced with Sherrone Moore – who led the team during Harbaugh’s suspensions last year. Without Harbaugh in the picture, Ryan Day, Dan Lanning and James Franklin hope to seize the opportunity to win the new-look conference and earn a first-round bye in the first year of the 12-team playoff.
Despite the additions of Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington, this conference remains top-heavy – so let’s take a look at the latest college football odds in the Big Ten along with our NCAAF picks to win the conference.
2024 Big Ten odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are available at the time of publishing
- Ohio State +150
- Oregon +200
- Penn State +500
- Michigan +600
- USC +2200
- Iowa +4000
- Washington +5000
- Nebraska +5000
- Wisconsin +8000
- Rutgers +10000
- Maryland +12500
- Michigan State +12500
- Northwestern +15000
- Illinois +15000
- UCLA +20000
- Minnesota +20000
- Purdue +20000
- Indiana +30000
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Big Ten contenders
Ohio State Buckeyes (+150)
Not many programs are as excited to see Harbaugh leave Ann Arbor as the Buckeyes. Following an 8-game winning streak over the Wolverines, the Buckeyes have not defeated their bitter rival in 3 straight attempts dating back to 2019. This year figures to be a bit different, as Ohio State has gone all-in by acquiring a few of the most highly coveted players in the transfer portal to go along with its already stacked roster. Coach Ryan Day hired Chip Kelly to run the offense, and the additions of quarterback Will Howard and running back Quinshon Judkins in unison with TreVeyon Henderson should make the Buckeye rushing group one of the premier units in college football.
The Scarlet and Gray have to replace a generational talent in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but Ohio State simply reloads at that position every year – as true freshman 5-star Jeremiah Smith takes Harrison’s place in the lineup. Standing at 6’3” and 215 pounds, Smith is also considered to be a generational talent and should complement returning starters Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka perfectly. The offensive line returns 4 starters, but is arguably the most concerning unit of the offense being that it ranked outside the top 40 in PFF’s run-blocking and pass-blocking grades in 2023. Expectations are that this group will take a step forward with a year of experience and Kelly at the helm, but the addition of Seth McLaughlin at center is worrisome due to his inability to snap the ball cleanly on a consistent basis at Alabama.
Under coordinator Jim Knowles’ tutelage, Ohio State’s defense has become one of the best in college football. The Buckeyes ranked in the top 5 in total defense and scoring defense last season, allowing less than 270 yards and 12 points per game. Headlined by Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, the Buckeye stop-unit returns as many as 8 starters in 2024 while adding one of the best safeties in the country in Caleb Downs. With all the returning talent, Ohio State’s defensive line and secondary are rated the best at their position by Phil Steele. The Buckeyes lose starters in Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers at linebacker, but there is reason to believe the position will remain level or even improve this season with Cody Simon and newly-converted safety Sonny Styles at the helm. Simon and Styles were 2 of Ohio State’s best 5 tacklers last season per PFF, and both of them were better than Eichenberg in pass coverage. Additionally, Simon was the best-graded pass rusher on the Buckeye defense last season and seems poised to have a breakout 5th season.
Ohio State’s schedule is extremely favorable. The Buckeyes open the season with home games against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall, and will play just 4 true road games – starting with Michigan State at the end of September. Games against Iowa, Nebraska and Michigan will be in Columbus, so the general feeling surrounding the Buckeyes is that the entire season comes down to their road games at Oregon and at Penn State. Assuming Ohio State overpowers its other opponents with its defense and elite rushing attack, the Buckeyes have as good a chance as anyone to finish the regular season undefeated.
Don’t miss our NCAAF National Championship best bets for the upcoming season, including a +6500 longshot!
Oregon Ducks (+200)
Gone are the days when Michigan and Ohio State were each other’s biggest threats in the Big Ten. The Ducks bring back 8 starters on the offensive side of the ball if you include transfer acquisitions headlined by quarterback Dillon Gabriel and wide receiver Evan Stewart. Stewart should complement slot receiver Tez Johnson and big-bodied Traeshon Holden very well, giving Gabriel multiple reliable downfield options when he drops back. Gabriel figures to be very comfortable in the pocket behind an offensive line which, despite losing its top 2 pass protectors, returns someone at each position who played at least 350 snaps in 2023. This unit was better in pass protection than run-blocking, but running back Jordan James is one of the nation’s best and will be able to put that on display with Bucky Irving now playing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On paper, Oregon appears to have one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
The Ducks were just outside the top 20 in total defense and yielded just 16.5 points per game last season. With 9 pieces who started for their respective programs in 2023, the Ducks are expected to take the next step defensively considering Dan Lanning’s expertise on this side of the ball. However, there are some concerns with the change in conference and all the new faces in this group via the transfer portal. The Ducks lost their 3 best defensive linemen – all interior – to the NFL after finishing 11th nationally in total rush defense and top 30 in yards per carry. Transfers Jamaree Caldwell and Derrick Harmon will be asked to fill in the gaps created by the aforementioned departures, and they should do just that given their top 50 rush defense grades last season per PFF. Oregon’s linebacker corps has a mixture of experience and youth that should grade well in tackling, but the secondary has the most questions of any group on its defense. The Ducks have to incorporate 5 transfers and 2 freshmen into the 2-deep secondary rotation after this unit allowed over 400 passing yards twice and over 300 yards another 2 times last year. For what it’s worth, 4 of the 5 transfer additions in the secondary played at the power conference level in 2023, but just 1 of them finished in the top 200 in PFF’s coverage grade.
Fortunately for the Ducks, their schedule gives their transfers a few weeks to get acclimated to Lanning’s system, as Boise State figures to be the biggest test of their first 5 games before welcoming Ohio State to Eugene on October 12. If the Ducks manage to beat the Buckeyes, they will likely be undefeated until at least November. However, they will have to travel across the country every other week from mid-October to mid-November, which could lead to some fatigue. For reference, the Ducks have a 2-month gap between their late-September bye and their late-November bye.
See our 2024 Heisman Trophy winner predictions, with our expert picking a longshot at 100/1 odds!
Penn State Nittany Lions (+500)
While there is a bit of a drop-off from Ohio State and Oregon to Penn State, the Nittany Lions are squarely in the conversation to win the Big Ten. In fact, Penn State faithful may argue it’s as good of a time as any for the Nittany Lions, who will likely benefit from the new division-less alignment in the conference. Every year, Penn State had to get through Ohio State and Michigan just to reach the conference title game, but this year is different. The Lions won’t play the Wolverines during the regular season for the first time in over a decade, and they get the Buckeyes at home. That’s not the only thing that will be different in Happy Valley, as James Franklin hired Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas to be Penn State’s offensive coordinator. Kotelnicki elevated the Jayhawk offense to new heights and is expected to do the same for the Nittany Lions – who hardly pushed the ball down the field and finished outside the top 50 in total offense despite scoring over 35 points per game last season.
Quarterback Drew Allar returns for his junior season, but his upside is likely to be determined by the play of the offensive line and wide receivers. Penn State has to replace 3 linemen who now play in the NFL, as well as 3 of its top 4 non-running back pass-catchers – so the Nittany Lions need transfer right tackle Nolan Rucci and transfer wide receiver Julian Fleming to step in and produce right away. The running back duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen is the most promising unit of the offense, but the line has to create running lanes for Singleton and Allen if they want to return to their 2022 form – when they combined for over 1,900 rushing yards and 22 rushing touchdowns.
Penn State’s defense figures to be a top-15 unit once again despite the loss of Adisa Isaac, Chop Robinson and 3 starters in the secondary. The Nittany Lions are top 40 in returning defensive production with as many as 6 of its top 7 tacklers back, and they still have plenty of playmakers in the front 7 – including 3 linebackers that ranked in the top 25 nationally at the position among those who played at least 100 snaps per PFF. Furthermore, the secondary returns Kevin Winston Jr., Cam Miller, Jaylen Reed and Zion Tracy – Penn State’s top 4 graded players in pass coverage. The Nittany Lions will have one of the more difficult Week 1 matchups when they travel to Morgantown to play West Virginia, but this team has a solid floor and seems relatively safe to win at least 9 games if the offense can figure things out under Kotelnicki.
Now read our expert’s CFB Win Total best bets, targeting Georgia, Colorado and more
Michigan Wolverines (+600)
The defending national champs enter the 2024 season without Harbaugh, but that’s not the most concerning aspect of this team considering Moore has gameday experience as interim head coach during Harbaugh’s suspensions. The most concerning aspects of Michigan this season are the lack of returning production and the increase in strength of schedule. The Wolverines return less than 30% of their offensive production, as J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, 3 of their top 4 pass-catchers and all 5 starting offensive linemen have moved on.
Despite a relatively easy schedule, a national championship and an abundance of now-NFL players, the Wolverines were outside the top 65 in total offense in 2023 – including 55th in rushing offense and 82nd in passing offense. With so many inexperienced linemen starting this season, it remains to be seen if Michigan can return to anywhere near its 2022 rushing production – a year in which the Wolverines finished 5th overall. The passing game almost certainly will regress without McCarthy, as projected starter Alex Orji is more of a threat to use his legs than perform effectively through the air. Meanwhile, projected backup Jack Tuttle has attempted less than 200 passes in his college career with just 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Michigan’s defense brings back slightly more than the offense, but this unit still ranks 99th in returning production and will be under the command of new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Martindale is known for his ultra-aggressive blitz-heavy defenses in the NFL, which should work just fine against the below-average offenses Michigan faces. However, elite passing attacks like Texas, Oregon and Ohio State may be able to take advantage of Martindale’s schematic predictability. The Wolverines should remain elite along the defensive line, but there are concerns with the lack of elite production and experience in the back 7 outside of Will Johnson. Incorporating a new head coach, new coordinator and multiple new faces is already hard enough for any unit in college football, but there surely will be added pressure for this unit to carry the load given the offense’s likelihood to regress without McCarthy.
Read our full SEC preview and predictions, including a best bet at +800 odds
Big Ten winner best bet: Ohio State Buckeyes (+150)
Odds available at multiple sportsbooks including BetMGM and Bet365 at the of publishing. Remember to shop around for the best price on the market, especially on future bets.
With so much returning production on defense and so much talent on offense, it is very difficult to pick against Ohio State this year. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes went all-in with acquisitions of Howard, Judkins and Downs, making this roster one of the most talented in recent memory. Not to mention the fact that Day has a pair of very strong coordinators in Kelly and Knowles, which is a luxury not many coaches have.
Even if the Buckeyes lose at Oregon in October, there is a good chance they will still play for the conference title in Indianapolis – where they have won in 5 straight appearances. Wins at Penn State and against Michigan may not be given, but the Buckeyes are already favorites in those games per lookahead lines and are the more complete team in both cases. In direct comparison to Oregon, Ohio State has a much better travel situation – as the Buckeyes travel to the West Coast just once while the Ducks travel across the country 3 times in a calendar month without a bye week in between.
Now check out our ACC predictions and latest odds, which includes THREE best bets!
