Sam Avellone
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Of all the power conferences, the Big 12 will look the most different in 2024. Not only did defending-champion Texas and rival Oklahoma leave for the SEC, but Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah joined the conference just 1 year after BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF officially became members. The new 16-team league has just 8 representatives that were part of the league 3 years ago, and will crown a different champion for the 4th time in as many seasons following Oklahoma’s reign from 2015-2020.
Newcomer Utah makes itself at home as the favorite in its first season in the conference. However, 6 other teams are currently listed at 10/1 or shorter to be crowned Big 12 champs, so this league is as wide open as any and should be very exciting to watch. Without further adieu, let’s take a look at the latest college football odds in the Big 12 along with our NCAAF picks to win the conference.
Big 12 Conference odds
Odds courtesy of Bet365 and available at the time of publishing.
- Utah +300
- Kansas State +350
- Oklahoma State +700
- Kansas +900
- UCF +900
- Iowa State +1000
- Arizona +1000
- West Virginia +1200
- Texas Tech +1200
- TCU +1600
- West Virginia +1800
- Colorado +2800
- Baylor +6000
- Cincinnati +6000
- Arizona State +12500
- Houston +12500
- BYU +12500
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Big 12 contenders and Big 12 football predictions
Utah Utes (+300)
When Kyle Whittingham took over as signal-caller for the Utes in late 2004, they were in the Mountain West Conference. Fast forward nearly 20 years and the Utes are in their 3rd conference under Whittingham’s lead. For what it’s worth, the Utes never had a losing record under Whittingham in the Mountain West, and they finished with winning overall records in all but 2 of their 13 seasons in the Pac-12 under his direction. Last season was a struggle, though. After starting 6-1, the Utes lost 4 of their last 6 because they could not score. Quarterback Cam Rising missed the entire season with an injury, but he was not the only one who missed time. Star tight end Brant Kuithe missed the entire season as well. Running back Micah Bernard and wide receiver Mycah Pittman both missed a vast majority of the season, and even backup quarterback Brandon Rose was hurt until Utah’s bowl game. That’s just the offense. There were plenty of injuries on the defense too. Starting linebacker Lander Barton missed about half the season, as did defensive ends Logan Fano and Connor O’Toole. In fact, only 5 players on Utah’s entire defense played 12 games.
With Rising and Kuithe back in the mix and experienced wide receiver transfers Dorian Singer and Damien Alford added in the portal, Utah is poised to make some noise in 2024. The Utes avoid Kansas State and Kansas, but will have challenging road games in unfamiliar territory at Oklahoma State and UCF to begin and end their conference schedule, respectively. Furthermore, matchups against former Pac-12 foes Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado shouldn’t be too daunting considering the Utes have beaten each of them in at least 6 of their last 8 meetings. That leaves TCU, Houston and BYU, who figure to be sizable underdogs when they play Utah, and Iowa State – who the Utes play at home. Oklahoma State, Iowa State and UCF are the swing games. If the Utes win at least 1 of those games and avoid an upset elsewhere, they would be in a great position to play for a conference title in December.
Don’t miss our College Football Futures Betting Guide for tons of picks ahead of the new season, including on the National Championship, Heisman and all the Power Conferences!
Kansas State Wildcats (+350)
The Kansas State Wildcats have won at least 8 games in 4 straight non-COVID seasons for the first time since 2011-2014 under Bill Snyder’s tenure. Their schedule sets up nicely for success, but the Wildcats will have to replace their offensive coordinator after he departed for Mike Elko’s staff at Texas A&M. Kansas State also returns just 47% of its offensive production from a season ago. Quarterback Avery Johnson and running back DJ Giddens are back to headline Kansas State’s backfield, but the Wildcats will be without their top 2 pass catchers and 4 starting linemen from last season. The offensive line was a strength of this team last year, so it will be interesting to see how this unit performs with 4 new faces. Johnson and Giddens will need room to run if this team wants to be in the conference title picture, as Johnson has yet to prove himself as a reliable passer.
Kansas State’s defense returns quite a bit more production than its offense. In fact, the Wildcats return 79% of their defensive production, including 8 starters and 5 of their top 6 tacklers, which ranks 12th nationally. Their defensive coordinator is also back for his 5th season in Manhattan, so there is quite a bit of continuity among this group. This should be a good thing considering Kansas State yielded just 21 points per game and held opponents to the 2nd-lowest red zone touchdown conversion rate in the country. However, the Wildcats finished the season in the bottom 5 of the Big 12 in run defense, tackling and pass rush per PFF and were outside the top 55 nationally in total defense. They also yielded at least 27 points in 5 of their conference games despite finishing 2nd in the league in scoring defense behind Texas. Given the turnover on the offensive side of the ball and uncertainty of the trajectory of Kansas State’s defense, I have more questions than answers about the Wildcats and struggle to see value in their current odds to win the conference given how wide-open the Big 12 feels this year.
Don’t miss our NCAAF National Championship best bets for the upcoming season, including a +6500 longshot!
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+700)
Mike Gundy enters his 20th season as head coach of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. He will have the 3rd-most returning production nationally, including 90% of the offensive production and 80% of the defensive. Headlining the returning talent is running back Ollie Gordon, who accumulated over 2,000 total yards and 22 touchdowns, averaged 6.1 yards per carry, forced 68 missed tackles and churned out 45 explosive runs in 2023. He joins Alan Bowman in the backfield, who is in his 7th season as a college quarterback and will run behind an offensive line that has over 200 combined starts. Despite the experience, Oklahoma State’s offensive line finished outside the top 100 in PFF’s run-blocking grade – which provides context for Gordon’s 1,056 yards after contact. The wide receiver corps returns its top 2 pieces in Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens, but Bowman will have to improve on his 14 interceptions and 22 turnover-worthy plays if he wants to realize the potential of his receivers and take pressure off Gordon.
The Cowboys’ defense has significantly regressed since coordinator Jim Knowles left for Ohio State. They finished the 2023 season outside the top 85 in scoring defense and outside the top 125 in passing defense, yielding more than 30 points in 8 of their 14 games. Furthermore, only 2 of their players graded as top 50 overall defenders in the Big 12 per PFF. Oklahoma State’s schedule of offenses is extremely favorable, especially with all of its returning production – but is it realistic to expect a giant leap in defensive production and efficiency in Bryan Nardo’s 2nd season as defensive coordinator in Stillwater? This team feels entirely too dependent on the legs of Gordon, but the Cowboys have Big 12 Champion upside if Gordon stays healthy, the offensive line improves its run blocking and the defense figures out how to contain the pass.
See our 2024 Heisman Trophy winner predictions, with our expert picking a longshot at 100/1 odds!
Kansas Jayhawks (+900)
The Jayhawks won 9 games for the first time since 2007 last season and return a plethora of playmakers across their offense – which ranked 4th in scoring last season. Lead running back Devin Neal returns for his senior season after accumulating 1,497 total yards and 17 touchdowns, while complimentary running back Danile Hishaw Jr. remains after tallying 626 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. Kansas also has all 3 of its top wide receivers back in the mix after the trio combined for 1,924 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air a season ago. Star quarterback Jalon Daniels is back in Lawrence too, but can he stay healthy? Daniels has yet to play a full season since being named Kansas’ starting quarterback, which is mildly concerning given the fact that the Jayhawks return just 2 starting offensive linemen while backup quarterback Jason Bean moved on to the NFL. Fortunately, Kansas’ 5 projected starters on the line are all at least 6’3” and 300 pounds, and will have a few games at the beginning of the season to gel as a unit.
From 2011 to 2022, the Kansas Jayhawks finished outside the top 100 in total defense in all but 2 of those years. Last season, there was tremendous improvement. The Jayhawks were inside the top 80 in total defense for the first time since 2009. In fact, Kansas’ defense improved by more than 90 yards per game and hopes to take another step forward in 2024. However, it is going to be a challenge without 3 of its top tacklers and its leading pass rusher from a season ago. Kansas’ schedule of opposing offenses is extremely manageable, but road games at West Virginia and Kansas State will be challenging. Remember, the Jayhawks will not have any true home games this season while their new stadium is being built. They will play their non-conference home games at Children’s Mercy Park (Sporting KC’s stadium), and their home conference games will be held at Arrowhead Stadium – home of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Now read our expert’s CFB Win Total best bets, targeting Georgia, Colorado and more
UCF Knights (+900)
UCF’s first season in the Big 12 did not go as planned, as the Knights’ 6 wins were the program’s fewest since 2016. Coach Gus Malzahn used the pedestrian season as a reason to take full advantage of the transfer portal, signing more than 20 players who project to start or at least contribute right away. Highlighting the transfer class on the offensive side of the ball is former Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson, who Malzahn claims is the closest thing he’s had to Cam Newton since his coaching days at Auburn. Jefferson hopes to return to his 2021 and 2022 form playing behind a deep and experienced offensive line in addition to playing next to one of the most talented running back groups in the country.
Senior back RJ Harvey was an absolute monster last year, tallying 226 carries, 1,416 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns while having success as a receiver out of the backfield. UCF also has senior transfer running back Peny Boone on the roster this year, who also accumulated at least 1,400 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns for Toledo in 2023. The Knights will have to replace leading receiver Javon Baker, but Kobe Hudson is poised to take that role after accumulating 900 yards and 8 touchdowns last season.
The Knights left a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the ball in 2023, as they ranked 83rd in total defense and 125th in rush defense. As many as 12 of Malzahn’s transfers will line up on this unit, more than half of which played at the power conference level previously. Malzahn also brought in a familiar face in Ted Roof to be UCF’s defensive coordinator after he parted ways with Oklahoma. With so much turnover in the back 7 and a new coordinator in the mix, it is difficult to know exactly what the Knights’ defense will look like in 2024. However, as long as this unit is capable of protecting leads this year, the Knights should contend for a spot in the Big 12 title game.
Read our full SEC preview and predictions, including a best bet at +800 odds
Iowa State Cyclones (+1000)
The Cyclones’ 7-5 regular season finish in 2023 was somewhat of a shock. They were involved in a sports betting scandal leading into the season, and they battled injuries all year long – which led to multiple true freshmen getting a ton of playing time. Quarterback Rocco Becht and running back Abu Sama III were 2 of those freshmen, and they took advantage of their opportunity. Becht was rated a top 4 passer in the Big 12 by PFF, while Sama finished 7th in the conference in yards after contact on just 91 touches. For reference, West Virginia running back CJ Donaldson Jr. finished 8th on 235 carries. All that experience should bode well for the Cyclones this year, as they return 90% of their offensive production – which ranks 3rd nationally. Becht has very good receivers and a stud sophomore tight end to throw to, but the Cyclones are going to need much better play from their offensive line if they want any chance to compete for the conference title and a College Football Playoff berth. Ranking outside the top 125 in run blocking and pass blocking isn’t going to cut.
Iowa State’s defense does not return as much as its offense, but it’s close. The Cyclones have 81% of their defensive production back, including their top 5 tacklers and every single person who recorded a sack. They should have plenty of time to get into a rhythm on this side of the ball given they don’t play a projected top-50 offense until they travel to West Virginia in mid-October. However, it gets tricky after that, as the Cyclones play UCF, Kansas, Utah and Kansas State in their final 6 games.
Check out our Big Ten Conference predictions, including previews of all the main contenders!
Big 12 winner best bet: UCF Knights (+900)
Odds available at multiple sportsbooks including Bet365, BetMGM and DraftKings. As always, remember to shop around for the best odds.
UCF’s offensive potential is too great to ignore at these odds. With a deep and experienced offensive line and the bruising presence of Jefferson to complement Harvey and Boone, the Knights are positioned to be a force to be reckoned with on the ground – especially in Malzahn’s system. UCF’s defense is a concern, but it does not need to be elite for the Knights to have success in this conference. The addition of multiple power conference transfers and a familiar defensive coordinator should improve the production of this unit. Road games at Iowa State and West Virginia will be the most challenging for the Knights, but they do not have consecutive road games at any point in the season and will benefit from bye weeks before a home game against Colorado and their trip to Morgantown.
Now check out our ACC predictions and latest odds, which includes THREE best bets!
