Andrew Ortenberg
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The second round of the NBA playoffs got underway on Sunday, and it’s been a wild first handful of days. The Heat and Suns are both up 2-0 on the 76ers and Mavericks respectively, while Bucks/Celtics and Warriors/Grizzlies are both knotted up at one game apiece. All four matchups are about to shift to a new city, so now feels like a good time to reflect on what we’ve seen through the first eight games.
It won’t be long now before we’re on to the conference finals, and it’s important to track any trends that are taking shape. Let’s dive into a couple of potentially interesting betting takeaways from the second round action:
Home court advantage proving strong?
It seems like home court advantage is alive and well. There have been eight second round games so far, and the home team has covered the spread in seven of them. Home teams are 6-2 outright (the Warriors won Game 1 of their series against the Grizzlies but didn’t cover the spread in the one-point victory).
Milwaukee was the only road team to cover so far, back in Game 1 against the Celtics. And even they hardly looked impressive in that ugly win. The Suns’ crowd has been raucous and it looks like it’s rattled the Mavs. It’ll be very interesting to see if this trend holds as each series gets ready to flip cities.
The 76ers have had a very tough time playing on the road without Joel Embiid, but they might put up more of a fight in front of their home crowd. It’s often said that role players, who they need to step up in Embiid’s absence, usually play better at home during the postseason.
Ja Morant and the Grizzlies have the momentum right now after their win on Tuesday night, but it’s notoriously difficult to beat the Warriors on their home floor this time of year.
Stars taking over
One trend that seems to be taking shape is that as the playoffs go deeper, the stars are taking over more and more. This could be actionable with prop bets, perhaps taking the over on some players who are seeing their volume increase sharply before the oddsmakers catch up.
Look no further than Morant. Golden State has remained committed to taking away the supporting cast and guys like Desmond Bane, forcing Morant to carry a much heavier load. In Game 1 of that series, he took 31 shots, and he followed that up with 31 more in Game 2. He’s averaging 40.5 points over those two contests.
The Celtics were a big disappointment in the first game of their series, and then their two stars stepped up on Tuesday night. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both had at least 29 points in a very low-scoring game. Grant Williams made some threes, but nobody else on the team did anything offensively.
The same has been true for the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday both took 20+ field goal attempts the other night. No other Milwaukee player had more than seven. It certainly hasn’t been a banner week for role players and bench units.
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