It’s been a fairly solid week on the diamond, grinding out profit every day except one. I feel like I have been seeing the card well, and the hard work is paying off in the results. You need to cherish these moments. Remember them; think about them. It sounds dumb, but when you are in a slide, you need to remember the good times. Remember the bets you had no business winning and pulled a rabbit out of your hat. It’s way easier to remember the skids of not winning a bet in 10 days than going 12-0. It’s important to treat them both the same, especially in a high variance sport like baseball. With that said, let’s dive into the Saturday card.
Baltimore Orioles (John Means) at Chicago White Sox (Lance Lynn)
Play: White Sox -1.5 (+105)
*Playable to White Sox -1.5 (-110)
The Baltimore Orioles take on the Chicago White Sox, and it is another matchup against a left-handed starter for the Sox. This narrative about how much the White Sox crush lefties is well out there now, and it is definitely priced by the bookmakers. However, they can only price it so high, and in this instance I still feel like it is a bit short.
John Means gets the nod for the visiting Orioles, and has turned in a fine season so far. He has an ERA of 1.79 which looks great on the surface, but there is more to dig into. His FIP is 3.46, and his BABIp sits at a low .187. He only has a ground ball percentage of 30.3% while giving up a modest hard hit percentage. There is some regression coming his way, and hard to avoid against the best hitting lineup against lefties.
Countering Means will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn has turned in a fine season so far, with an ERA of 1.51 and a FIP of 3.12. That also signifies some regression coming his way, but let’s dig a bit deeper. His walk rate is below average, while having an an above average strikeout percentage of 25.9 percent. He also has a great opposing batting average of .176 and is only giving up 0.8 HR/9. I know the narrative with the White Sox facing a lefty is square, but I like the trend to continue today.
San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish) at Houston Astros (Jake Odorizzi)
Play: Padres -1 (-114)
*Playable to Padres -1 (-125) or -1.5 (+100)
© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
The San Diego Padres are in Texas taking on the Houston Astros. Most teams come into Houston lately wanting to prove something. They are a good team, and also are known for notoriously cheating in the playoffs. The latter is what inspires most teams, and frankly I can’t blame them.
Going for the Padres will be former Cub Yu Darvish. Darvish has given the Padres everything they expected to be getting and has an ERA of 1.75 and a FIP of 2.65. The other peripherals are good as well, and he has a modest BABIP of 2.59 while giving up a hard-hit percentage of only 31.8. He has a massive arsenal, and he uses it well to keep hitters off balance.
On the other side for the Astros will be right hander Jake Odorizzi. To say he has had a bumpy start to his year would be an understatement. He comes into this game with an ERA of 10.13 and a FIP of 6.37. There should be some positive regression coming his way, but with numbers like that, it is hard to find many positives. His hard-hit percentage is over 50, and is giving up 3.4 HR/9. He isn’t aging well, and the Padres have a lineup to take advantage of it. Padres get the lead early and their bullpen locks down the win.
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