The reigning Super Bowl champs, Kansas City Chiefs, will look to make it two in a row on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes and company face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the Chiefs opening as short favorites, and a game total at over/under 56, this game is sure to feature plenty of offense. Make sure you check out our full-game preview for the huge matchup, which includes picks on the side and total, and to also check out our Super Bowl Hub to ensure you’re as informed as possible before making any wagers.
As always, the Chiefs present so many great opportunities for player props. With a potent passing attack, and banged up running game, there seems to be a direct correlation between the strengths and weaknesses of Kansas City’s offense and Tampa’s defense. With my two props, I’m looking to exploit just that.
Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions
Line available at publishing. Over 7.5 receptions at +130 playable for a half unit.
The Chiefs have set Hill loose this postseason. “Cheetah” reeled in 17 catches on 21 targets through the first two games. During the regular season, Hill caught 87 passes in 15 games. While this line represents a bump from his average production, Hill did erupt for 13 catches for 269 yards and three touchdowns in Week 12 versus Tampa.
In that matchup, Hill roasted the Bucs’ best cornerback, Carlton Davis. Davis, along with Tampa’s other cornerbacks, are better suited against the bigger, physical receivers. With his quickness off the line and his world-class speed, Cheetah presents a matchup nightmare for the Bucs. Six of Hill’s 13 catches in their first matchup went for 20+ yards, and his average target depth was 15 yards. Tampa allowed the fifth-shortest target depth this season (7.6 yards) and I fully expect them to sell-out to protect from Hill breaking off long gains over the top.
Also, the state of the Chiefs offensive line can’t be ignored. Already down two starters, and possibly a third (pending center Daniel Kilgore’s COVID contact tracing results), Kansas City is forced to re-shuffle their front five. The Bucs generate pressure 28 percent of the time (third-most in the NFL), and recorded the fourth-most sacks (48). This, coupled with Mahomes’ lingering toe injury, likely means Kansas City will be forced to get the ball out quick. Versus the Bills, 30 of 38 of Mahomes’ passes traveled less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage (79 percent). In the regular season, this split was 63 percent.
Ten of Cheetah’s 17 catches this postseason have traveled less than 10 air yards. I fully expect the Chiefs to utilize his quickness on the shallow/intermediate routes. Given his 28 percent postseason target share, I have Hill projected at 11 targets and eight catches.
Darrel Williams under 45.5 rushing + receiving yards
Line available at publishing. Would play down to under 43.5 yards.
With injuries to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell, Williams has come alive as the Chiefs’ number one running back this postseason. However, Edwards-Helaire is expected to be fully healthy for Sunday, and Bell seemingly has a chance to be active as well. While Williams might assume de-facto lead back duties, I don’t see him getting a full workload.
With Edwards-Helaire returning from injury last week, he outsnapped Williams on offense 32 to 30. Williams did out-touch the rookie 14-7, as he picked up the majority of the carries. Edwards-Helaire was the preferred receiving back outsnapping Williams 26-14 on pass plays.
The Buccaneers possess the best rush defense in the NFL, allowing the fewest rush attempts, yards per carry, and yards. Beyond that, the Chiefs will be playing with backups on the offensive line, specifically at right guard and possibly center. Williams (and the Chiefs run game in general) had their most success running towards the right this season. So even if Williams leads the team in carries, success will be difficult to come by.
Williams was by far the least efficient pass catcher amongst the Chiefs running backs. His 0.64 yards per route run rank behind Edwards-Helaire (0.97) and Bell (0.86).
I’m of the belief that a healthy Edwards-Helaire will garner a larger share of carries in this one. Williams will command some snaps, but with the Chiefs looking towards their quick passing game, I see a reduced role for the third year back. I have his total yardage projected in the mid-30s.
Make sure you also check out my Tampa Bay Buccaneers player props for Super Bowl 55.
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