Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are back in the Super Bowl for the 4th time in 5 years. It’s tough to think anyone will come within an arm’s reach of Tom Brady, but Mahomes is on the path to do just that. The Chiefs team this season is a slightly different iteration of what we’re used to in a Mahomes-led club; the defense is easily the best unit we have seen in the 4 appearances and the run game is something Reid has leaned on the second half of this season. It will be interesting to see how they fare against this 49ers club, but one thing is for certain… the moment is not too big for Mahomes. You can read our full Super Bowl 58 San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions, but for now, let’s get into my favorite Kansas City Chiefs player prop bets for the big game.
Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 pass attempts (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mahomes averages 40 pass attempts per game in losses this season and has gone over this mark in 5 of 6 losses in the regular season. Am I tipping my cap as to which way I’m leaning on this game? Maybe. But the public is all over the Chiefs and the line continues to move in favor of the 49ers going from -2 to -2.5 in some books. I won’t personally bet against Mahomes from a sides standpoint, but this line is enticing. The 49ers will do a good job controlling the clock with their offense and it will amplify the importance of each KC drive. They cannot run the risk of going 3-and-out in these scenarios, as SF is outstanding at playing with a lead. As a result, Reid will (rightfully) put the game on Mahomes shoulders. This is a good number regardless of the game’s outcome, but I like it more given the line movement we are seeing.
All eyes on our Super Bowl 58 San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay at +700 odds
Rashee Rice over 66.5 receiving yards (-110) 1u
Rashee Rice 75+ receiving yards (+130) 0.5u
Rashee Rice 100+ receiving yards (+350) 0.25u
Rashee Rice 125+ receiving yards (+850) 0.1u
Lines available at Bet365 at time of publishing
The obvious choice on receiving yards is to bet on Travis Kelce, but I rarely lean into the obvious. The 49ers were just carved up by Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown, so Mahomes & Co. have to be chomping at the bit to get at this defense. Nick Bosa has a favorable matchup against RT Jawaan Taylor, but I think that lends itself to Mahomes getting the ball out of his hands early. Kelce will have his moments, but he will be a focal point of this 49ers defense. Rice, on the other hand, may be the forgotten man. He is 2nd on the team to Kelce in terms of targets and receptions against zone coverage and first in reception rate. I love Rice in this game because he has done a great job finding soft spots in zone coverages as a rookie and turning up field for extra yards, as shown in his team leading 8.9 yards after catch per reception against zone defense.
