Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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My best bets for Super Bowl 57 are outlined below. I’m expecting a high-scoring affair, with the Chiefs coming out on top 31-24. The Eagles do have advantages in this game, better secondary, better playmakers, better pass rush, but to me the Chiefs get the nod in the two most important categories: quarterback and head coach. If these teams played 10 times, the Eagles would probably win 6 — but when it comes to first-time Super Bowl HCs and QBs, I will always fade in favor of the ones that have been there already.
With that said, let’s look at my favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets for the big game!
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Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 receiving yards (-112)
Line available on BetRivers sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Goedert has the best mismatch for this Eagles offense and I’m going with the trend of the center of that Chiefs defense being a liability. Goedert sees 51% of his target in the middle of the field and Kansas City gives up the 5th most targets per game to opposing TEs. If you can’t get this at 45.5, play up to 47.5 or pivot to over 4.5 receptions at -125. All for 1U
Isiah Pacheco longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-120)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
You can still get this line at slightly better value at +101 or -105 on certain books, but ultimately, I see the Pacheco breaking a big gain Super Bowl Sunday. After watching CMC rip off a 23 yard run against this Eagles defense when EVERYONE knew he was getting the ball, I feel confident in the Chiefs ability to create a big enough hole or Pacheco’s ability to get the to the edge. Pacheco should see fewer 8–9-man front’s that he did vs CIN and will benefit from a slightly healthier Patrick Mahomes. 1.5U
Don’t miss our Super Bowl Best Bets for this Sunday’s big game
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts (-115)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mahomes has hit this in 61% of his postseason games and in both Super Bowl appearances. The game plan will revolve around Mahomes and for good reason. I would only play this up to 38.5 depending on where the closing line lands. An extra week to get that ankle healthy will be key. 1U
Jerick McKinnon Over 20.5 receiving yards (-125)
Line available on PointsBet sportsbook at the time of publishing.
McKinnon has seen his receiving yards line drop to the lowest it’s been in over a month. The Eagles rank 24th in pass DVOA vs RBs, allowing 6.8 targets per game to opposing running backs. In the Chiefs last two Super Bowl appearances, running backs combined for 9 targets and 8 targets. Andy Reid has even less weapons at this disposal this go around, and McKinnon should play a bigger part than we’ve seen of late. 1U
Head over to our Super Bowl Parlays page for our Chiefs vs Eagles Same Game Parlay
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-108)
Line available on Caesar’s sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Yes, I’m making a TD scorer a 1U play for the Super Bowl. Travis Kelce is the exception to the rule in most cases. He’s scored 3 TDs in 2 games this postseason and is far and away Mahomes favorite target in the redzone. Kelce scored in Super Bowl 55 and has 15 TDs in 17 career postseason games. At nearly even money, I see the value in this play. If it is only available at -125 or better, you can shy away. 1U
DeVonta Smith Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is strictly a numbers play for me. Smith has hit this line in 7 straight games prior to the NFCCG. I do not put any stock in the production level of any PHI wide receiver in that game. By kickoff, this line will be at 65.5, so please make sure you do not wait on this line if you intend on playing. Smith averages 81 YPG for the season and after seeing what Tee Higgins did yesterday, I feel confident in Smith’s ability to get open against these KC cornerbacks. Play up to 63.5. 1U
Find out the latest Super Bowl odds for Chiefs vs Eagles
Quez Watkins Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on PointsBet sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Watkins has been quiet these past two games and it’s due to the game plans in place. The Giants game was a 38-7 blowout that never needed the Eagles to get pass happy at any point and the same can be said for the NFCCG. Prior to those two games, Watkins hit this line in 6/8 and was seeing 2+ targets in 12/17 games. This is essentially one catch for Watkins, who is averaging 10.7 y/rec and has an aDOT of 9.6 yards to go along with 4.7 yac/rec. 1U
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Miles Sanders Under 70.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120)
Line available on PointsBet sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Sanders is a non-factor in the passing game so I’m using his receiving yards to get this number up over 70. The Eagles RB has not had double digit receiving yards since Dec 11th vs the NYG and he’s only cleared this line once in the last 6 games (vs NYG in playoffs). The Chiefs defense held Cincinnati to 71 rushing yards as a team and 3.1YPC to both RBs. Joe Burrow had success with his legs and I expect Hurts to have a majority of the rush attempts this Super Bowl Sunday. With Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott eating into Sander’s snap count over the last 4 games, fading Sanders as such a high number seems safe. 1U
Super Bowl 57 Chiefs vs Eagles Same Game Parlay (+511)
- Chiefs ML
- Dallas Goedert 50+ Receiving Yards
- Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 Passing TDs
- Travis Kelce anytime TD scorer
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