What a great matchup we have tonight in prime time, with the Atlanta Braves taking on the Chicago Cubs. I’ve singled out my favorite prop for this game below.
Ronald Acuña Jr Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Ronald Acuña Jr Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-105)
To put it simply, Acuña has been electrifying this season. He’s put up unheard of advanced analytical numbers thus far – a wRC+ of 260 and wOBA of .578 are two hilarious examples – and he’s been far and away the biggest bright spot for the Atlanta offense this season. Acuña is riding a 9-game hitting streak – in which he’s surpassed 1.5 total bases on 7 of 9 occasions – and just can’t be beaten by any type of pitching right now. I expect nothing less tonight, with Cubs “ace” Kyle Hendricks on the mound, a pitcher known for working with command, rather than velocity. This approach has been effective throughout his career, but I’m expecting him to have a far more difficult evening than his last two starts (Brewers and Pirates), who have been atrocious vs RHP this season.
Over his career, Acuña has only faced Hendricks three times, but has already seen success with a walk and home run, and that was back in 2019. He’s significantly improved in many areas and has a dynamic Braves lineup around him to provide support. Many of the Atlanta hitters have struggled to start the season, but in my mind, there is no question that they are set for positive regression. This is a group that includes several of the premier players in the National League, and I strongly expect guys like Freddie Freeman and Marcel Ozuna to roll back into form. Additionally, with Acuña leading off the Atlanta order, we’ll have the maximum possible of at-bats in a game with the wind blowing out to centerfield near double-digit speeds. Acuña is in a great spot, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go deep as well.
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