Welcome to the final game of the April 28th slate – Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants. As with any Rockies games outside of Coors Field, there tend to be angles to go after pitching-wise. That is especially the case tonight in San Francisco as we get a cool night with one of my favorites, German Marquez, on the mound.
German Marquez Over 17.5 Outs (-135)
Marquez is consistently one of my “outs” props guys away from home. Over the last two seasons, he has started a total of 18 games, 10 at home and 8 on the road. He’s been solid in both places, but is just a touch better on the road, averaging 18.5 outs per start on the road as compared to 18.3 at home. That extra boost is all I need to see to pull the trigger here: Marquez was extremely unlucky to not record 18 outs vs SFG last time, as every ball seemed to find a hole in a long 6th inning that he eventually was removed from. I have full faith that the Rockies will have an extremely long leash tonight, especially having used 5 of their leverage relievers last night. This is the perfect spot for their ace to help them clinch the series.
As far as the Giants go, it’s fair to say they are underwhelming against righties. So far in 2021, they rank bottom-10 in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS, and have the second-highest strikeout frequency of any team in baseball. This is not a group that’s going to crush pitching on a nightly basis, especially towards an extremely soft bottom of the order. I have full faith that Marquez gets 95+ pitches tonight, and that will be all he needs to work his way through six solid innings and secure us the 17.5 plateau. He’s consistently demonstrated pitch efficiency throughout his career, and with the Giants resting a few starters (including Buster Posey), I just don’t see there being enough depth to adversely influence his ability to run deep into the game.
