Ricky Dimon
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The Los Angeles Lakers can win their record-tying 17th championship on Friday night when they go up against the Miami Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. As -7 favorites, they are expected to do just that. But the question is: if they do take care of business, who will be most responsible for delivering the final nail in Miami’s coffin?
Although LeBron James is an overwhelming -1000 favorite to win NBA Finals MVP, could it be Anthony Davis who delivers the knockout punch? Will it be Kyle Kuzma or Kentavious Caldwell Pope who gives LeBron and A.D. the support they need? Or will Jimmy Butler help keep the Heat alive?
Let’s answer some of those questions and take a look at the best prop bets for Game 5.
Jimmy Butler Under 24.5 points (-110)
Butler’s odds are still inflated by his incredible 40-point triple-double in Miami’s Game 3 victory. But don’t let that performance blind you from the reality of the situation. In his other 11 games dating back to the Eastern Conference semifinals against Milwaukee, the 31-year-old has not exceeded 25 points a single time–and only once did he score exactly 25. That means in 10 of the Heat’s last 12 outings, Butler has scored fewer points than the number allotted to him for Game 5 on Friday (24.5). Bam Adebayo’s return does not help Butler’s chances because Miami’s offense is more oriented in the paint, resulting in points for Adebayo himself or kick-outs to sharpshooters Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson. There is not as much room with which Butler can work, and when that happens he is always happy to be a facilitator as opposed to a scorer.
Duncan Robinson to score more points than Kyle Kuzma (-130)
In turn, Robinson could be in line for another big day. The former University of Michigan standout by way of Williams College has scored 13 and 17 points in the past two contests. He went 3-for-10 from three-point range in Game 3 before making half of his six attempts beyond the arc on Tuesday. In five of the last six games, Robinson has attempted at least seven shots from the land of plenty. Meanwhile, it is time to jump off of the Kyle Kuzma bandwagon–at least as it pertains to this season. He has scored more than 11 points only once in the last nine games and he has not logged more than 23 minutes in any contest since Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals against Denver. Caldwell-Pope is supporting cast member No. 1 at this point for Los Angeles.
LeBron James to record a triple-double (+250)
Everyone knows that LeBron cares about his legacy–and so does every other all-time great. He won’t just want to win his fourth NBA title; he will want to win it in style. And let’s be honest: he wants to beat out Davis fair and square for MVP honors as opposed to receiving it simply because he is LeBron James. In other words, you can expect a huge night for LeBron when it’s clinching time in L.A. (well, clinching time in Orlando for L.A. to be more specific). But heck, you can expect huge nights for LeBron every time regardless of the situation. In the last five games, the 35-year-old has missed a triple-double by no more than two combined rebounds and assists. He has not missed a triple-double by more than three combined rebounds and assists since Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. LeBron is always right there, and like in the clincher against the Nuggets (38 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists) this time he is going to get all the way there.
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