Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The 2022 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the Buffalo Bills going across the country to play the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. NFL brass is usually strategic in their opening-night matchups and this year should not disappoint, as it features two of the top teams in each conference.
This season I will be providing you with my favorite player props each week and my analysis on why I feel it is a strong bet. I have been sports betting for more than 20 years (Dad started me young) and playing fantasy sports for more than 17 years. I have found player-prop betting opens itself to more advantageous odds, and with the right knowledge can be extremely profitable long term.
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Check out our all of our NFL picks and analysis for every NFL game this season.
Dawson Knox over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Dawson Knox is coming off the best season of his career, in which he notched 9 touchdowns and averaged 39 yards per game. This line has fluctuated across sportsbooks, being as low as 35.5 and as high as 37.5 . Knox hit this line in 8 of 15 games last season and benefits from a Rams secondary that will have young faces playing serious snaps. The Rams’ defense derives from the Vic Fangio style that relies on two deep safeties and limits the explosive plays. This should favor Knox in the short and intermediate routes, as he had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.2 yards last season.
Knox was inactive when the Bills and Rams met in 2020, but Bills TE Tyler Kroft had 5 targets for 4 receptions and 2 TDs. Tight ends against this Rams defense find soft spots in their zone, allowing the 11th-most receptions to opposing TEs in 2021.
I expect Knox to see 5 to 7 targets Thursday, but his 12 yards per catch will get him well past this number. Emotions will be riding high for Knox as he lost his younger brother unexpectedly in August and returned to the team on August 23 to prepare for the season opener.
Be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams predictions
Allen Robinson longest reception over 20.5 yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Allen Robinson has performed exceptionally well for a wide receiver that has had Mitch Trubisky and Blake Bortles throwing to him for the majority of his career. Now he finds himself lining up opposite Cooper Kupp and receiving passes from Matt Stafford in head coach Sean McVay’s offense. Aside from what his normal workload will be, the Rams enter Thursday’s game a bit thin. Van Jefferson is uncertain to suit up after having two knee surgeries in the offseason. In 2021, Jefferson’s aDOTwas 13 yards — the highest on the team. I expect Robinson to see 8 to 10 targets and be the deep threat for this Rams offense. Kupp will demand a significant amount of attention from this Bills secondary that will miss Tre’davious White, thus providing Robinson with something he hasn’t seen much this far in his career: single coverage.
The Bills were ranked the best passing defense in the NFL last season, surrendering 163 ypg. However, if you look into their schedule more closely, you will see they only played 6 games against playoff teams in 2021 (one of those was in a blizzard). In those 5 games, they allowed 10 receptions of 21+ yards or more.
For his career, Robinson has 85 receptions of 20+ yards in 84 total games. On Thursday, he will be stepping into a high-octane offense with the best QB he’s ever played with. Obviously, I was excited to see this line open at 20.5 because we may not see it this low again all season.
Matt Gay over 2.5 PATs made (+145)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
A kicker prop?!?! Yes, I do not discriminate when it comes to player props and this one has exceptional value at +145. This Rams offense averaged 3.06 TDs per game last season with one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL, Matt Gay.
Gay made 48 of 49 XPs during the 2021 regular season and cleared this line in 11 of 21 games (52%). Under McVay, the Rams are 5-0 in Week 1 matchups and have averaged 32.6 ppg in those contests. They are 4 of 5 against this line under McVay. At -110 I would likely shy away from this type of play, but at +145 it’s too good to ignore.
Bills vs Rams same game parlay
Lines available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Dawson Knox over 35.5 receiving yards
Dawson Knox to score a touchdown
Allen Robinson 50+ receiving yards
SGP odds: +545
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