Andrew Ortenberg
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MLB is back in full swing, and we’ve got a great slate on Wednesday. I’ve got two player props which I really like that I’m going to discuss here. One of them centers on a big game from none other than emerging superstar Shohei Ohtani. Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 14 games today first.
Shohei Ohtani over 7.5 strikeouts (+128)
Line available at publishing at DraftKings
Getting this much plus-money with Ohtani is very appealing. Shop around since this line is only +104 at FanDuel. His stuff is looking nasty right now, and he has a 2.35 ERA in June after having a 2.38 ERA in May.
He’s gotten to at least eight strikeouts in three of his past four games, with nine and 10 K outings mixed in there as well. That’s despite not going deeper than six innings in any of those games, so we don’t need a particularly long outing to cash this.
Ohtani is in the 92nd percentile for strikeout rate in the majors, and his split-finger fastball is nearly un-hittable. Batters have a .086 average against it.
The matchup here is also solid, as the Yankees’ offense really isn’t what it was cracked up to be. They’ve been mediocre all season, and have the second-most strikeouts of any team in the league over the past seven days. Ohtani should be in for a big day.
Chris Bassitt over 5.5 strikeouts (-139)
Line available at publishing at DraftKings
Outside of Ohtani, there’s another AL West pitcher whose strikeout total I like. -139 really isn’t to steep of a price to be paying for Bassitt here. For a bet to be profitable at -139, it only needs to cash around 58 percent of the time.
Bassitt has gotten to at least six strikeouts in 10 of his past 13 starts, a rate of 77 percent. He’s striking out a little over a batter an inning, and he often goes pretty deep into games. He’s pitched at least seven innings in six of his last 10 outings, a rarity in today’s game.
When you throw in the fact that he’s facing a weak-hitting Rangers lineup, there’s a lot to like here. He just pitched against Texas in his last start, and although he only struck out four batters, he gave up just one run in seven innings.
Those four Ks were an outlier, and now pitching against this same team at home this time he should deliver a lot more. He just got a chance to feel out this lineup, and should be more comfortable working through the order on Wednesday. He’s no Ohtani, but Bassitt has some solid stuff as well.
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