Andrew Ortenberg
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The NBA weekend is about to wrap up with an interesting Sunday slate that features some solid matchups. You can of course always get our thoughts on the side and total for every NBA game under our ‘NBA Picks‘ tab, but right now we’re going to be talking about props. Player props in the NBA are one of my favorite things to bet, as you can really dig into matchups and how you project a game to flow. Without further ado here are our top three plays for Sunday, where we’re counting on a big game from Luka Doncic:
C.J. McCollum over 25.5 points (-120)
It’s not too often we get to see McCollum play without Damian Lillard, so people forget how dominant of a scorer he can be. Lillard will be out tonight and missed Portland’s last game against San Antonio, when McCollum went off. He scored 29 points while the team only scored 107 as a whole, with a very high usage rate. He’s only played two games without Lillard this season, and has taken at least 25 shots in both of them. He’s locked into sky-high volume here, and is getting to face an already mediocre Hornets defense that will now be without a bunch of their best players.
Be sure to check out our full-game preview for Portland Trail Blazers vs. Charlotte Hornets.
Luka Doncic over 28.5 points (-118)
Doncic should be in for a big game here. He’s scored at least 29 points in eight of his last 15 games, so just in a vacuum this is around where the line should be. But when you consider the matchup, this isn’t any regular old game. Doncic is getting to face a Kings team that is giving up the single most points per game in the entire NBA. Doncic hasn’t played Sacramento yet this season, but in his last two games against them last year he had at least 33 points both times. He’s also scored at least 29 in three of his past four overall.
Be sure to check out our full-game preview for Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks.
Luguentz Dort under 16.5 points (+100)
I think getting even money here is a steal. Now is the time to fade the hype surrounding Dort after a couple of big scoring nights. He exploded for 42 the other night, getting a ton of media attention, and inflating this total as a result. Before scoring 42, he had only scored more than 16 in two of his previous 14 games. I think a 16.5-point total is an overreaction to an outlier. I also really don’t like this matchup for him. Toronto has been a huge disappointment this season, but their defense has actually still been solid. With OG Anunoby, they have someone who can match the length and athleticism of Dort and keep him in check.
Be sure to check out our full-game preview for Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors.
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