Andrew Ortenberg
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After the Hawks embarrassed the Bucks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Milwaukee promptly returned the favor in Game 2. The Bucks responded with a dominant 125-91 victory to even the series up at 1-1 as it shifts to Atlanta. We’ve got a ton of great content coming for Game 3, including a same game parlay with +1231 odds. But right now we’re talking player props, and I’ve got two I really like on Sunday. One of them revolves around a disappointing game from Clint Capela.
Don’t forget to check what our NBA analysts have backed for the side and total tonight as well.
Clint Capela under 11.5 points (-115)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Hawks are an incredibly fun team that’s easy to root for. After their Game 1 win though, the hype got a bit out of control. The lines for several of their players became inflated, as the buzz drove prices up. When you look at how Capela has scored in the playoffs so far, it’s clear he doesn’t deserve to be priced this high.
In Game 2 he scored just two points in 25 minutes. In Game 1 he played about as well as he possibly could have, shooting 6-for-9 and playing 38 minutes, and he still got over this total by only a half-point while scoring 12. In 14 playoff games so far, he’s yet to score more than 14 points once. He simply isn’t getting enough looks.
In the regular season, Capela averaged 11 field-goal attempts per game. In the playoffs, that has dropped to 7.6. That’s not a fluke either, as it always seems to happen to him in the playoffs. His last time making the postseason was in 2018-19 with Houston. He went from 10.9 field-goal attempts in the regular season to 7.5 in the playoffs that year.
Trae Young is seeing absurd volume on offense, while Kevin Huerter and John Collins have become bigger focal points on offense recently. That’s leaving very little for Capela.
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 6.5 assists (+116)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel Sportsbook
Getting this much plus-money here is a steal. The Hawks are going to do whatever they can to take the ball out of Antetokounmpo’s hands in Game 3, which should lead to plenty of assist opportunities. I was on the over 5.5 (-125) in Game 2, and Giannis managed to cash it despite playing only 29 minutes due to the game being a blowout.
He finished with six in that game, but easily would have had seven had he played a full allotment of minutes. In Game 1, he racked up nine. Milwaukee’s offense struggled as a whole in their series against Brooklyn, but they now appear to have woken up.
Jrue Holiday is on fire offensively, and both Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez shot well in Game 2. If Antetokounmpo’s supporting cast keeps the momentum going, he’ll have no trouble cashing this. This series has been played at a pretty fast pace and the Bucks want to get out and run.
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