Saturday brings us a four-pack of NBA playoff action. With games all day, the betting action should be rampant. Before we dive into player props, make sure you check out all of our analysts’ picks and analysis for full insight on the games.
At this point in each series, the key for player props is to figure out which trends will stick, and which were just a facade. For my two best bets of the day, I’m keying in on two players who will look to continue on their recent success.
Dillon Brooks over 19.5 points (-105)
Line available at time of publishing.
The upstart Grizzlies have been one of the better NBA teams at drafting and developing players recently, with Brooks a prime example. The former second-round pick has blossomed into the team’s second-leading scorer at 17.2 points per game in the regular season. He’s picked up his production even more recently. In his last 21 games, he’s averaging 20.1 points, and in the last eight, he’s upped his scoring to 23.1 per game.
The main reason for his scoring uptick has been his aggressiveness. Over the course of the regular season, Brooks averaged 5.0 points on 7.8 drives per game. In the four play-in and playoff games, Brooks is averaging 8.0 points on 10.3 drives per contest. He’s been noticeably more aggressive and the Grizzlies are looking to involve him more as a ball-handler on the pick and roll.
While the Jazz undoubtedly are a great defensive team, they have shown vulnerabilities versus the pick and roll. During the regular season, Utah gave up the most points per game to ballhandlers operating the pick and roll. Yes, Ja Morant gets the majority of the ballhandling duties for Memphis, but there is plenty of room for Brooks to succeed as well.
With the series shifting back to Memphis, I expect a closer game. If Brooks can stay out of foul trouble, he’s looking at least 35 minutes of floor time. And when Brooks gets minutes, he produces. The Oregon alum has reached the 20-point plateau in 15 of the 21 games he’s played at least 32 minutes (71 percent). I see him getting there tonight, with my projections yielding 22 points.
Jusuf Nurkic over 11.5 rebounds (-125)
Line available at time of publishing.
Opposing centers struggled to rebound versus the Nuggets in the regular season, but Jusuf Nurkic (and the Blazers defensive scheme) have bucked that trend. Nurkic has grabbed at least 12 rebounds in his last four games, all against Denver.
Nurkic averaged nine rebounds per game in the regular season, but only on 23.8 minutes per game. His rebounding chances per minute and rebounding percentage has stayed true in the playoffs, coupled with an increase in minutes (30 per game). It’s evident that Blazers coach Terry Stotts is looking to keep his starting center on the floor as much as possible to match up with Nikola Jokic. In the last ten games Nurkic has seen at least 28 minutes of court time and he’s averaged 12.2 rebounds.
Foul trouble will be important to watch, but I still like Nurkic to stay aggressive on the boards. I have the Bosnian Beast projected at 13 rebounds.
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