Andrew Ortenberg
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MLB is back in full swing, and we’ve got another great slate on Saturday. We’ve had a lot of success with our MLB handicapping lately, and we’re looking for more big wins here. Right now we’re talking player props, and I’ve got two which I really like that I’m going to discuss here. One of them centers on a big game from Dustin May. Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 15 games today.
J.D Martinez over 0.5 runs scored (+100)
Line available at publishing at DraftKings
This line is seriously mis-priced. Martinez has been having a resurgent 2021 campaign, as he’s hitting .351 with a 1.175 OPS. He’s coming off a two-home run game on Friday. He’s scored at least one run in 15 of his 25 games this season, so just blindly I think there’s value in getting this at even money.
Then when you consider the matchup, it becomes clear that +100 is a steal. Martinez and the Red Sox lineup are getting to face Rangers starter Jordan Lyles on Saturday. Lyles is a journeyman with a 5.26 ERA in 262 big league appearances and 157 starts. It’s incredible he’s been able to stick in the league this long, and it’s not hyperbole to say he’s one of the worst starters in the majors.
Boston’s offense has been a revelation this season, and they should pound Lyles. He enters this one with a 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. As long as Martinez gets on base a couple times, which is very likely, this one should cash.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers.
Dustin May over 6.5 strikeouts (+138)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel
Getting this much plus-money here also has value. The Dodgers have struggled a bit recently, but it hasn’t been because of May. The young right has been fantastic, entering this start against the Brewers with a 2.53 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Most importantly, he’s been making batters whiff at a high rate.
Impressively, he has 32 strikeouts in 21 and 1/3 innings this season. He’s gotten to at least eight strikeouts in three of his four starts, and still had six in the only one he didn’t. Last time out against a tough Padres lineup, he struck out ten in only six innings.
This matchup is also favorable, as the Brewers’ offense has the fourth-most strikeouts of any team in the league. With his recent performances and the tendency of Milwaukee to strikeout, I have no idea why oddsmakers are giving us +138. Take advantage.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwauke Brewers.
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