Germantas Kneita
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Two Game 4s tip-off tonight as two teams try to ensure that they leave their home court with the series tied at 2-2 heading back to enemy territory for Game 5. The Clippers were dominant in their Game 3, picking up their first win of the series by a 26-point margin. They will be looking to keep that momentum going tonight. The Hawks on the other hand were outplayed at home and will be looking to turn the tide of the series after dropping two straight games. Don’t forget to read our picks on the side and total for both of tonight’s matchups.
After hitting both my prop selections last night, make sure you check out my selections for tonight’s action below.
Ben Simmons over 14.5 points (+102)
In two of the games this series Ben Simmons has been able to clear this total and is coming into Game 4 having attempted 11 field-goal attempts. That is more shot attempts that he attempted in the first two games combined and goes hand in hand with the comments from Doc Rivers, who encouraged him to be more aggressive offensively. If that level of aggression is to continue tonight, he could continue this impressive level of scoring, especially considering he is shooting a touch under 77 percent from the field this series.
There is certainly space for him to be effective against the Hawks. Joel Embiid can occupy Clint Capela and pull the Hawks’ main rim protector out of the paint. The Hawks are also missing a lockdown perimeter defender that could consistently keep Simmons out of the paint or effectively contest his shots at the rim. With the effectiveness that he can get in the paint, the Hawks do resort to fouling him to stop him from getting his shots up. A sign of encouragement in Game 3 was that he was able to knock down 50 percent of his free-throw attempts, and if he can keep that up here, it should allow him to clear this total once more.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Donovan Mitchell over 4.5 made threes (+200)
Donovan Mitchell has been one of the most impressive players during this postseason so far. He is averaging a touch over 37 points per game against the Clippers. His versatile offensive arsenal has meant that the Clippers have been unable to shut down any part of his game, and that includes his three-point shooting. He has knocked down five or more three-pointers in four straight games, and in five of seven overall this post season. Against the Clippers, he is attempting 12 per game and is shooting an incredible 48.5 percent from the arc.
With Serge Ibaka out for the series, and the damage that Mitchell was able to do in-game in the paint, the Clippers could look to keep forcing him to attack from outside here. No team this postseason is shooting more threes per game than the Jazz so do not expect his attempts to go down tonight. He is currently attempting a three-pointer every three minutes he is on the floor and if he manages around 40 minutes here, that should be enough to have this total hit once more. Considering he has hit this in four straight, this is a terrific value bet.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
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