Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
MLB is back in full swing, and we’ve got another great slate on Monday. We’ve had a lot of success with our MLB handicapping lately, including a big mega parlay win this past week, and we’re looking for more big wins here. We went 2-0 on our player props Sunday, let’s do it again on Monday. I’ve got two more which I really like that I’m going to discuss here. One of them centers on a big game from Alex Verdugo. Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 15 games today.
Alex Verdugo over 0.5 runs scored (-113)
Line available at publishing at DraftKings
I went with two strikeout props yesterday, but this hitter’s market was the first thing that caught my eye on Monday. Verdugo has scored a run in seven of his last ten games, and in 17 of the 30 games this season where he’s gotten an at bat overall. As such, there’s value in getting this at -113 just blindly.
But when you consider the matchup, it becomes clear how much this line is mis-priced. The Red Sox have scored 21 runs over the first three games of their series against Baltimore, and are sizable favorites again here. The Orioles will start Jorge Lopez here, who has a 6.49 ERA through six starts.
In his one outing against Boston this year, he was tagged for seven earned runs. Verdugo also has a history of success against him. In his career against Lopez, Verdugo is 3/4 with a double and a home run.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles.
Martin Perez over 4.5 strikeouts (+120)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel
For our second prop, we’re sticking with this Red Sox/Orioles game. Perez isn’t the flashiest pitcher, but there’s a lot of value in getting +120 here. The Venezuelan lefty is seen as a mediocre starter, which has depressed this line. This season, he has 28 strikeouts in 28 and 2/3 innings.
Considering he’s facing a weak Orioles lineup that’s in the top half of the league in strikeouts, I think we’ll only need five innings from Perez to cash this. He’s already gotten to six strikeouts in three of six outings this year, including each of his past two. If Boston is up big in this game, which I expect, they’ll let Perez go as long as possible to save the bullpen.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our ‘MLB parlays‘ and ‘MLB prop bets‘ tabs for more expert picks.
