Andrew Ortenberg
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MLB is back in full swing, and we’ve got an interesting slate on Monday. It’s a small-ish one with only 11 games, but there are still plenty of opportunities for value. I’ve got two player props which I really like that I’m going to discuss here. One of them centers on a big game from Dylan Bundy of all people. Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 11 games today first.
Wade Miley over 4.5 strikeouts (-115)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel
Before we get to Bundy, this Miley prop caught my eye in one of the slate’s earlier games. Miley has been having a fantastic season broadly speaking, entering with a 2.85 ERA. His strikeout rate hasn’t risen dramatically, but he’s going deeper into games since he’s pitching so well, allowing him to rack up more Ks.
He’s gotten to at least five strikeouts in six of his past eight starts, and we don’t need him to pitch brilliantly to get there. Last month he had by far his worst start of the year against the Rockies, giving up eight earned runs in only three innings.
He still managed to strikeout five in that game. The Phillies are top ten in the league in strikeouts and also play much worse on the road, so I like the matchup here as well.
Philadelphia has scored three runs or fewer in nine of their past 12 games, so Miley has a very good chance to go six or seven innings. He’s pitched seven in three straight starts.
Dylan Bundy over 5.5 strikeouts (+120)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel
I’m also expecting a big day for Bundy, and getting +120 is too good to pass up. His strikeout totals recently don’t look too inspiring, but that’s because he’s been getting hit pretty hard. His strikeout rate for the season is still about a batter an inning, and he’s been slightly better than a one per inning guy the past few years.
The Yankees are ninth in MLB in strikeouts per game, and have really struggled at the plate lately. They failed to top three runs in any of their three games against Boston over the weekend, so a matchup against New York could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Bundy.
After a promising first year with the Angels, Bundy has struggled in 2021. But before his recent cold stretch, he opened the year by recording at least six strikeouts in each of his first six starts.
He also has a promising history of success against some of the Yankees’ top hitters. Giancarlo Stanton has five career at bats against Bundy, and has struck out four times. Aaron Judge has 18 career at bats against him, and has struck out eight times.
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