Andrew Ortenberg
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Two teams can punch tickets to the conference finals tonight. Will the Atlanta Hawks be able to close out the Philadelphia 76ers, and can the Los Angeles Clippers get past the Utah Jazz even without Kawhi Leonard? There are a plethora of wagers to make, but right now we’re talking props. I’ve got two plays for Friday, one of which centers on a big game from Joel Embiid. Before we dive in to props though, make sure you check out how our analysts are picking sides and totals for tonight’s games.
Joel Embiid over 33.5 points (-120)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
Embiid has heard all the jokes. After very narrow losses in back to back games, I’m expecting Embiid to come out and put the team on his back here. No matter what happens in the game, his volume should be off the charts. In three out of the five games in this series, he’s scored at least 37 points.
The Hawks don’t have anybody who can guard Embiid in the post, despite Clint Capela and co’s best efforts. His only bad offensive game was in Game 4, when he shockingly went 0-12 in the second half. Needless to say, that isn’t going to happen again. We don’t even need Embiid to hit too many shots, since he’s been getting to the foul line so consistently.
In four of the five games in this series, Embiid has knocked down at least 11 free throws. In the first round against the Wizards Embiid averaged 24 points in only 23.8 minutes per game. With this being an elimination game, he’s going to play as much as physically possible, and if we get a point per minute here we’re going to cash this.
Rudy Gobert over 13.5 points (-115)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing.
It’s the Gobert game. He didn’t have any huge scoring nights in the first four games of this series but was consistently solid, scoring at least 10 each time. Then he had 17 most recently in Game 5. Gobert averaged over 14 points per game during the regular season, and he had at least 15 in each of the four games he played alongside Donovan Mitchell in the first round of the playoffs.
Speaking of Mitchell, his ankle appears to be a legitimate issue. If his volume decreases even a little bit, that’s good news for Gobert. It looks like Mike Conley may return here, which is also good news. Conley is the true point guard of the team, and he got Gobert plenty of looks in the first round which was why his scoring was so high.
In the first four games of this series, Gobert never played more than 36 minutes. Then in Game 5, he played 42 minutes. It’s not a coincidence that he scored 17 that night. With this being an elimination game as well, just like with Embiid we should be locked into very heavy minutes here.
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