Andrew Ortenberg
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MLB is back in full swing, and we’ve got a great slate on Friday. I’ve got two player props which I really like that I’m going to discuss here. One of them centers on a big game from Blue Jays rookie Alek Manoah. Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 15 games today first.
Alek Manoah over 5.5 strikeouts (-103)
Line available at publishing at DraftKings
Getting this number at pretty much even sounds great to me. Manoah has been pretty promising in his first six big league starts, entering with a 3.34 ERA. He’s striking out over a batter an inning, and that isn’t a fluke. In 18 innings in AAA before getting called up, he had 27 strikeouts.
His only other minor league action was in 2019, when he again had 27 strikeouts in only 17 innings. As long as he goes six innings here, I would be very surprised if he doesn’t cash. We also don’t need him to do that by any means. Two starts ago he only lasted 3 and 1/3 innings, and still struck out six batters.
The matchup here is also very appealing as he’s going up against the Rays. Tampa leads the league in strikeouts, and it isn’t particularly close. They’ve got 837, and no other team has even cracked 800 yet.
This is only the third home start for Manoah, and in his last start at home he gave up zero earned runs and only four hits in six innings. 5.5 seems pretty conservative just because he’s an unproven rookie.
Zac Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts (-127)
Line available at publishing at DraftKings
Staying with an over 5.5 here but shifting to the NL West, I also like the over on Gallen. The Diamondbacks have been an absolute disaster this season, but it certainly hasn’t been Gallen’s fault. The youngster has been one of the few bright spots for Arizona, even though he hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year.
He enters this one with a 3.69 ERA. Gallen has some great stuff, and has 224 strikeouts in 191 career major league innings. He hasn’t been his best recently, but has gotten to at least six strikeouts in 16 of his 20 starts over the past two seasons.
That’s a clip of 80 percent, so I’m not too concerned about laying -127 here. The Giants’ offense has been a big success story overall, but they’ve still been striking out a ton. In fact, they’re sixth in MLB in strikeouts this season.
Oddsmakers are underestimating Gallen because he’s had a couple of low punch-out games recently, but that’s misguided.
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