I woke up today just wanting to gamble. Specifically a MLB player prop. Pitcher strikeout props are going to be what carries me through NFL pre-season (yes I bet the pre-season) and honestly, it’s not a bad life. If you haven’t tried it, I highly recommend it. Last night’s Anthony DeSclafani +120 bet was a shot of life that people pay good money for. Nobody can argue that. When you hit something like that, you just want more. It’s science. Luckily for us, I found another one for tonight that I’m backing. The game starts at 7:05pm ET so we can be in and out of this slate if we want. Let’s have ourselves a Friday.
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Max Fried over 5.5 strikeouts (-116)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing
First off, I don’t love this price but what can we do? Not bet? God no. It’s a MLB player prop so we have to shop around. BetMGM has this same 5.5 number at -130 so I opted for FanDuel. At -116 it’s not great but it’s not -130 either. I can live with -116.
Max Fried is an absolute beast. I’m a fan. He’s 6’4″ 190 pounds and he’s whipping the ball in there at almost 94 mph. Over his last five starts he’s struck out at least five batters in each game while getting at least six one three of those starts. Fried has gone at least five innings in each of those games so we’re good there too. His form is exactly where we need it to be at the moment.
In the two games out of the last five where he didn’t reach the six whiff mark, Fried failed to strike out the opposing pitcher. That shouldn’t happen tonight. He will see Zack Wheeler and while Wheeler can pitch, he can’t hit.
Wheeler has struck out 22 times in 42 plate appearances this season. He goes deep enough into games that he may even get to the plate twice while Fried is still in the game. If that happens, Fried should end up in the 6-8 strikeout range tonight. We should definitely bet this.
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