Ricky Dimon
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Martin Luther King Day is always a big one in the NBA, so after nine games yesterday there are only two on Tuesday’s schedule. The New Orleans Pelicans are paying a visit to the Utah Jazz, while the Denver Nuggets are hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder. Yes, that means guys like Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are all in action.
Let’s take a look at the four best player prop bets for Tuesday’s small slate of games.
Bojan Bogdanovic Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-108)
Bogdanovic is absolutely stroking it from three-point land right now. Utah’s sweet-shooting small forward has drained at least three triples in three straight games, including at least four in three of the last five games. In the past three contests, Bogdanovic is 12-for-20 from the land of plenty. He now faces a New Orleans squad that is mediocre at defending the three-point line; opponents are shooting 37.2 percent from distance, including 40.7 percent over the last three games. There is no reason to think that Bogdanovic’s hot streak suddenly ends here.
Brandon Ingram Under 21.5 points (-108)
As a whole, Tuesday’s showdown will likely be a low-scoring affair. The total is set at a modest 218 and we still think it’s staying under. Utah is playing at the fifth-slowest pace in the NBA this season (101.5 possessions per game). New Orleans is the sixth-slowest squad at 101.7 possessions per game. Opportunities are going to be relatively lacking for Ingram—and for everyone else. The former Duke standout has not scored more than 22 points in any of the last four contests and he has not scored more than 24 since Jan. 4. He has shot better than 42.1 percent from the floor only once in the past four outings. With Williamson currently shouldering the load (point totals of 21, 24, 29, 26, 21, and 31 this month), Ingram may be in line for another modest night at the office.
Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 rebounds (-106)
Jokic is averaging a triple-double this season. His rebounding number (11.4 rpg) doesn’t quite meet Tuesday’s quota (11.5), but there is no reason why he can’t exceed it—perhaps even in comfortable fashion. The Thunder are already one of the weakest teams in the NBA in the front court and now center Al Horford (personal reasons) is out. Jokic is going to absolutely dominate the paint in this one. He has recorded 14 rebounds in each of the past two games and he should corral at least that many against Oklahoma City. In their last three contests, the Thunder are averaging more than 107 possessions per game (third-most in the league during this stretch). More possessions obviously mean more shots and more rebounds for everyone.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading scorer (+330)
From a points perspective, Jokic will once again have to share the wealth with Murray. There is even a chance that Michael Porter Jr. (19.5 ppg) returns for the first time in January. Gilgeous-Alexander, on the other hand, is clearly the guy on Oklahoma City. He is averaging 21.6 ppg and no one else on the team is scoring more than 12.8 ppg (Luguentz Dort). SGA is coming off a 33-point performance in a 127-125 victory over Chicago last Friday, which is all the more reason to be encouraged about his chances here.
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