Ricky Dimon
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The NBA obviously has to compete with the NFL conference championships on Sunday, but don’t entirely discount the hardwood action. Seven games are on the docket, and among those teams taking the court are the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Portland Trail Blazers. Yes, that means Sunday’s star power includes Kemba Walker, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and more.
Let’s take a look at the four best player prop bets for Sunday’s slate.
Domantas Sabonis to record a triple-double (+800)
Sabonis has delivered just one triple-double so far this season, but at +800 he has good value to accomplish the feat again. Unsurprisingly, the Indiana Pacers’ star forward has recorded a double-double with points and rebounds on every single occasion in 2020-21. In other words, assists are the only statistic we have to worry about. Against the Toronto Raptors, Sabonis has a real shot at dishing out double-digit dimes. Toronto allows the sixth-most assists per game in the NBA (26.3) and the second-most assists per basket (68.6 percent). The former Gonzaga standout is coming off a nine-assist effort against Orlando on Friday, so there is no reason to think he can’t get to the 10 mark at the Raptors’ expense.
Luguentz Dort to score more points than Serge Ibaka (+106)
Dort was a breakout star in the playoff bubble this past fall and he is now thriving in an increased role for the Oklahoma City Thunder. The second-year small forward is averaging 13.8 points per game and his three most recent point totals are 21, 20, and 19. Ironically, Ibaka is a reason why Dort could be in line for another big day. The Clippers rank fifth in the NBA in fewest points in the paint allowed (43.6 per game) thanks in large part to Ibaka. Oklahoma City may have to do its damage from the perimeter, and Dort will be happy to oblige. At the other end of the floor, Ibaka is scoring a modest 11.9 ppg this season and has been held to single-digits in two of the last three outings.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 29.5 points (-116)
Speaking of the paint, Atlanta Hawks’ center Clint Capela is absolutely dominating it right now. Capela’s four most recent block totals are four, three, five, and 10. Yes, he rejected 10 shots against Minnesota on Friday while recording his first-ever triple-double. Obviously no one can entirely shut down Antetokounmpo around the rim, but Capela can at least contain him to some extent. This may be a more perimeter-oriented game than the Greek Freak and the rest of the Bucks are used to. Therefore it should be noted that Antetokounmpo was 2-for-11 from three-point range in two contests against Atlanta in 2019-20. Moreover, he has been held to 25 points or fewer in three of the last five games heading into Sunday.
Damian Lillard Under 4.5 three-pointers made (+100)
With C.J. McCollum sidelined, you know that Lillard is going to fork up his fair share of shots. But, more importantly, you have to realize that Portland is going up against the New York Knicks on Sunday. New York generally plays at a snail’s pace and it leads the entire NBA—by a country mile, too—in points per game allowed (102.8). Additionally, the Knicks are atop the league in defending the three-point line; opponents are making a mere 31.0 percent of their attempts from long distance. Lillard has made more than four three-pointers only once in the last six games and he is coming off a 3-for-10 performance against San Antonio on Monday. There is no reason to think that he is suddenly going to make a ton against a team like the Knicks.
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