Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Much has been made about the quality of opponents the Eagles have faced to reach the Super Bowl. The common remarks we hear are, “it’s the easiest path the Super Bowl” in history. I actually agree with this statement, considering it took wins against Daniel Jones and an injured Brock Purdy to get there. However, the Eagles were far and away the best team in the NFC this season. They deserve to be here. The Eagles’ biggest advantage will be on the offensive line against the KC defensive line, and we know the ripple effect that can have throughout the rest of the game.
Super Bowl Prop Bets are available early, and by kickoff, you can see lines 5%-10% higher due to how long they will be available. If you are playing my overs, I encourage you to lock your bets in early.
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Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 receiving yards (-112)
Line available on BetRivers Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is right where it should be, but the matchup is the intriguing one. Goedert was always going to have difficulty against San Francisco, but luckily this line is at the same mark. The Chiefs allow the 5th most targets per game to opposing TEs. The middle of the KC defense is a funnel, ranked 29th overall in DVOA versus pass direction. Goedert has seen 51% of his targets in the middle of the field and has one of the better mismatches of the Eagles offense. This is one of my Super Bowl Best Bets. Play up to 47.5 for 1U.
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DeVonta Smith Over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is strictly a numbers play for me. Smith has hit this line in 7 straight games prior to the NFC Championship Game. I do not put any stock in the production level of any Philadelphia wide receiver in that game. Jalen Hurts did not throw the ball in the second half, and Sirianni went completely conservative after he built a 2-score lead. This will not be the case for the Super Bowl. By kickoff, this line will be at 65.5, so please make sure you do not wait on this line if you intend on playing. Smith averages 81 YPG for the season and after seeing what Tee Higgins did against the Chiefs, I feel confident in Smith’s ability to get open against these KC cornerbacks. Play up to 63.5. 1U
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Quez Watkins Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Watkins has been quiet these past two games and it’s due to the game-plans in place. The Giants game was a 38-7 blowout that never needed the Eagles to get pass happy at any point, and the same can be said for the NFC Championship. Prior to those two games, Watkins hit this line in 6 of 8 and was seeing 2+ targets in 12 of 17 games. This is essentially one catch for Watkins, who is averaging 10.7 yards per reception and has an aDOT of 9.6 yards to go along with 4.7 yards after catch. 1U.
Miles Sanders Under 70.5 rush+ receiving yards (-120)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Sanders is a non-factor in the passing game, so I’m using his receiving yards to get this number up over 70. The Eagles’ RB has not had double-digit receiving yards since Dec 11 vs NYG and he’s only cleared this line once in the last 6 games (vs NYG in playoffs). The Chiefs’ defense held Cincinnati to 71 rushing yards as a team and 3.1YPC to both RBs. Joe Burrow had success with his legs and I expect Hurts to have a majority of the rush attempts this Super Bowl Sunday. With Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott eating into Sanders’ snap count over the last 4 games, fading Sanders as such a high number seems safe. 1U.
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