Mark Lammey
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We’re closing in on the 2-month mark of the NHL season, which means we’ve got a solid base of data on teams. However, if you’re not feeling many of the sides or totals for tonight’s action, we have plenty of data on individual skaters as well. One issue many handicappers have had so far this season has been with stat-keepers and shots on goal props. Shots have been taken away from skaters, or not being correctly given at all, at an alarming rate. If you’ve been following throughout the season, you’ll notice we pick those spots very carefully. Thankfully, we won’t have to worry about that with our plays tonight, so let’s dive in. But along with our player props, be sure to check out all of our NHL picks for today’s action.
Tomas Hertl over 0.5 assists (+110)
The San Jose Sharks may not be a team that looks poised for a deep playoff run, but it doesn’t mean that they don’t have talented individual skaters. Timo Meier has been incredible for shots on goal, and we’re targeting his linemate with this play. Hertl being the center alongside Meier provides a huge boost to this prop. Meier is a prolific goalscorer, and Hertl is usually providing him with an assist in the process. He has 21 points through 24 games this season, and just had an impressive 6-game point streak snapped. However, that should not cause any concern. He hasn’t gone back-to-back games without a point since the first handful of games of the year.
Not only is Hertl always on the same line as Meier, but he’s also on the first power play unit. So is defenseman Erik Karlsson, whose 32 points are tied for the 3rd-most in the NHL. Now the Sharks get to face a struggling Montreal Canadiens team. They’re allowing the 8th-most goals per game, even after 2 strong games. Those were against weak opponents, and in the game prior to those, they allowed 7 goals to the Buffalo Sabres. The Canadiens are allowing just under 4 goals per game in Montreal, the 2nd-most in the NHL. With a great matchup and Hertl looking to start a new point streak, expect a big game from him tonight.
Mikael Granlund over 0.5 assists (-160)
We’re targeting another skater that also goes under the radar due to the superstars on the Nashville Predators. Filip Forsberg and Roman Josi have each come through for us with props already this season, so let’s give Mikael Granlund some love. Much like Hertl, his line placement is a critical part of this play. He is always paired with Forsberg, who, like Meier, is an incredible goal-scorer. With the Preds being at home and taking on a terrible Anaheim Ducks team, most player props are inflated. However, we’re getting great value with the lesser-known Granlund. The right-winger has worked alongside Forsberg perfectly and has 15 points through 20 games.
It’s clear that he prefers to be the assist-man while Forsberg and Josi take the shots, as 13 of those points are assists. He had a similar ratio last season, with 53 of his 64 points being assists. Three of those came against the Ducks across their 3 games against them. Anaheim has been just as poor defensively this season, as they allow the most goals per game in the NHL. They get even worse on the road, where they allow a whopping 4.67 goals per game, again the most in the league. Much like Hertl, the matchup and prior history are too great to pass up. The Preds have been resting with their last 2 games getting postponed due to a water main break in the arena, which should help Granlund and company be ready to come out strong.
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