Best NHL prop bets for today, 3/4 - Matthew Tkachuk handles business at home

Florida Panthers left wing Matthew Tkachuk
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Mark Lammey

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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind. For Mark Lammey media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Saturdays in the NHL means loads of action. Not only that, there has been a flurry of trade action in the last few days too. It can be a lot to keep up with, but we’re still keeping track of everything to make the best player prop picks possible. Our favorite spots are with a pair of skaters on Florida teams and one of them is featured in the first game of the day. With that in mind, let’s get into it. 

Along with our player props, be sure to check out all of our NHL picks for today’s action.

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Matthew Tkachuk over 1.5 points (+125)

While this isn’t the play in the first game of the day, we still wanted to feature Tkachuk first, and we’ll explain why. He’s having an MVP-caliber season with 79 points, the 6th-most in the NHL. Connor McDavid is the clear favorite to win the Hart and Art Ross Trophies, but no other skater has made as big of an impact for their new team this season than Tkachuk. He came over from the Calgary Flames this past offseason. Now he and his Florida Panthers teammates will be hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins this evening. 

With these Eastern Conference teams battling for a playoff spot, we expect an electric matchup. The Pens just squeaked by the Tampa Bay Lightning in overtime, but still allowed 4 goals in the matchup. Since the start of 2023, Pittsburgh has allowed the 7th-most goals per game. One of the reasons for that was the 6 goals Florida scored on them at the end of January. As you may have guessed, Tkachuk had 2 points in that game. That included a power-play goal and an assist. The left winger can get it done in multiple ways, which makes him even more valuable. You can consider taking his teammate Carter Verhaeghe to record a goal too, but we’ll back the consistency of Tkachuk for our official play. 

Be sure to check out our Pittsburgh Penguins vs Florida Panthers predictions

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Brandon Hagel over 0.5 points (-130)

Now it’s time to shift back to the start of the day with the other Florida team. We briefly mentioned the Lightning, as they’re coming off a rough loss and 3 straight defeats. One of those came by way of the Panthers, but now they get to face the Buffalo Sabres. That provides an opportunity for plenty of goals, as Buffalo has allowed the most goals per game in the NHL over the last month and gave up 7 goals in their most recent game. 

We considered taking Nikita Kucherov to also record multiple points, but we’re getting better value targeting Hagel to get only a single point. He skates on the same line as Kucherov and Brayden Point, who have been the primary goalscorers for Tampa. Hagel is also on the first power-play unit, which includes future Hall-of-Famer Steven Stamkos. The left winger has also feasted on the Sabres. He has just 4 career meetings against them, but has recorded at least a point in each one and 7 in total. With that kind of track record, we’ll go back to the lesser-known skater on a stacked Lightning squad.

Be sure to check out our Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres predictions

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