Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have officially reached the halfway mark in the NFL regular season as we head into the Sunday slate of Week 9. The top-tier teams have separated themselves and the top 5 in the draft is also starting to solidify. Admittedly, there haven’t been many surprises outside of Cincinnati’s slow start, and they are rebounding now that Joe Burrow is healthy. Minnesota has rallied back to 4-4, but after losing Kirk Cousins for the season to an Achilles injury it feels all for nothing. The NFC South is a crapshoot, but no one expects any of those teams to make an impact in the playoffs.
You can read all our NFL predictions for Week 9, but now let’s look at my favorite player props.
Jaren Hall (MIN) over 16.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jaren Hall is a rookie QB out of BYU who will step in for the injured Kirk Cousins. The first-year man has shades of a young Russell Wilson to his game and we saw him use his legs in the preseason and it was a staple in his college career. He averaged 6.2 carries per game in 2021 (5.0 ypc) and 7.1 carries per game in 2022 (4.1 ypc).
This may be Hall’s only shot to make an impression before recent trade acquisition Joshua Dobbs gets his opportunity to finish the season. I believe Hall will have a few plays drawn up for him and be given the green light to take off when he doesn’t see anything in coverage. This should be possible in 4 carries for Hall, and I think he will hit this by a wide margin. 1U
Lamar Jackson (BAL) over 42.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If you look at the Seahawks’ performance against QBs on the ground, you would walk away impressed. When you look deeper at exactly which QBs they have faced and which had success, you will start to understand why I like this line. They’ve faced only 3 QBs who fit the ‘mobile’ designation: PJ Walker, Joshua Dobbs and Daniel Jones. Those 3 combined for 7.6 carries per game, 45.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry.
For Jackson, this is a “buy low” spot as he has not hit this mark in 2 straight games, but has hit it in 4 of 8 on the year. We’re used to seeing Jackson rushing totals in the 60s, so I feel great jumping on this in the low 40s given his game-breaking ability. Given Jackson’s prowess against NFC teams (17-1 in is career as a starter) and his 64.5 rushing yards per game in wins for his career, I like the odds on this line. 1.5U
Check out our NFL Week 9 mega parlay (+1077 odds)
Josh Jacobs (LVR) under 74.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Somehow the Raiders are favored against the Giants after putting up their worst primetime performance in recent memory and firing head coach Josh McDaniels. This line feels like an overreaction to his performance on MNF, when he had his best ypc of the season (4.07). The Giants look laughable on paper, but they’ve turned it around these last 3 weeks, allowing only 87.3 rushing yards per game.
Daniel Jones returning could spark some excitement in the Giants offense and keep the Raiders on the sidelines longer than anticipated. The Raiders offensive line looked putrid last Monday night and even the firing of McDaniels can’t change that. Jacobs is averaging a measly 3.07 yards per carry, despite seeing over 16 carries per game on average. 1U
